CAJ | 학술논문

中国港口投资理论与实践仍处于初级阶段,已经无法适应未来港口可持续发展的实际需要。本研究借助扩张型实物期权描述港口或有投资决策的柔性价值,建立了港口投资扩建综合价值函数模型,反映了港口投资的高度不确定性、港口投资追求或有收益最大化和港口阶段性投资特点,并以港口投资利润指数为目标对投资最优规模进行数值求解。最后运用算例进行实际分析,结果表明,该模型具有实际应用意义。
중국항구투자이론여실천잉처우초급계단,이경무법괄응미래항구가지속발전적실제수요。본연구차조확장형실물기권묘술항구혹유투자결책적유성개치,건립료항구투자확건종합개치함수모형,반영료항구투자적고도불학정성、항구투자추구혹유수익최대화화항구계단성투자특점,병이항구투자리윤지수위목표대투자최우규모진행수치구해。최후운용산례진행실제분석,결과표명,해모형구유실제응용의의。
Chinese port investment theory and practice is still in the infancy,and are unable to adapt the actual needs of port sustainable development.The managerial flexibility involved in the contingent investment can be described and valued by expansive real options,an integrated value function model for the investment of port expansion is established,which reflects characteristics of the high degree uncertainty of port investment,in pursuit of maximum investment return,and port phased investment.The model is set up to calculate the optimal capacity with numerical techniques when the target investment return index of the port is mainly concerned.Finally,with a practical example,the results show that the model has the significantly practical applications.