CAJ | 학술논문

美国收入分配自1980年代出现了加剧不平等的趋势,塞斯等人利用税收资料建立一个长期的高收入阶层的收入份额时间序列,利用其数据建立计量模型考察收入变动与股市指数的关系,发现股市是造成收入份额增长的一个因素,两者存在一定的正相关关系。同时,通过对不同收入组别与股指的相关系数的比较,发现收入阶层越高,其受股市影响程度越大,这也验证了收入越高其在股市中的投资比重越大,其收入增长来源越多地依赖于股市。通过时变参数模型度量了股指对收入份额的弹性系数的动态过程,发现自1981年开始弹性系数略有上升,其原因可能与税率下降及投资热情有关。
미국수입분배자1980년대출현료가극불평등적추세,새사등인이용세수자료건립일개장기적고수입계층적수입빈액시간서렬,이용기수거건립계량모형고찰수입변동여고시지수적관계,발현고시시조성수입빈액증장적일개인소,량자존재일정적정상관관계。동시,통과대불동수입조별여고지적상관계수적비교,발현수입계층월고,기수고시영향정도월대,저야험증료수입월고기재고시중적투자비중월대,기수입증장래원월다지의뢰우고시。통과시변삼수모형도량료고지대수입빈액적탄성계수적동태과정,발현자1981년개시탄성계수략유상승,기원인가능여세솔하강급투자열정유관。
The income inequality in the United States has increased since the 1980s.Saez and others used the tax data to build a long-term series of income share of high-income group.In this article,some econometric Models are established to study the relationship between the income changes of high income group and stock market index in U.S.The empirical results indicate that the stock market is a very important factor which causes the growth of income share,and there is a certain positive correlation between them.And after the comparison of the correlation coefficient of different income groups,it is found that the higher income,the greater impacts from the stock market index,which verifies the point that the higher income groups invest more money in the stock market.At last,time varying parameter model is used to measure the income elasticity of the stock market index,and it is found that there have be a slight increase of the elasticity coefficient since 1981 probably because of the tax decrease and investment enthusiasm.