CAJ | 학술논문

电大开放教育自1999年开始招生以来得到了迅速发展,然而其教学投入并没有随着学生的增长而成比例增长,甚至有下降趋势。造成这种反差的一个重要原因是未能开展对未来在校生数量的预测工作。通过构建电大开放教育在校生数量预测模型来预测未来5年甚至10年开放教育在校生数,将为电大系统建设规划、资金投入和师资配置决策提供切实可靠的依据。在校生数由多个变量决定,其中毕业生数是一个较为可控的变量。本研究以毕业生数预测入手,以电大开放教育本科学生为样本,采用数据查询、差异检验、相关分析、聚类分析等方法,从＂学校-年级＂、＂专业＂、＂年龄-性别＂等三个角度探索不同批次学生毕业率和毕业比例学期分布特点。研究结果表明,电大开放教育本科学生毕业时间有一定的规律性,其中学生毕业时间集中在第5、6、7、8等学期,某一批次学生（按＂学校-年级＂分组）最长毕业时间跨度为13个学期,不同学校、年级的毕业比例学期分布具有一致性;人文与社会科学类专业（英语类专业除外）学生毕业时间跨度较短,毕业率较高;毕业率随着年龄的增长而降低,二者在一定程度上呈负相关关系;20岁以上（含20岁）多个年龄段学生毕业比例学期分布具有一致性。这就使毕业生数的预测成为可能。
전대개방교육자1999년개시초생이래득도료신속발전,연이기교학투입병몰유수착학생적증장이성비례증장,심지유하강추세。조성저충반차적일개중요원인시미능개전대미래재교생수량적예측공작。통과구건전대개방교육재교생수량예측모형래예측미래5년심지10년개방교육재교생수,장위전대계통건설규화、자금투입화사자배치결책제공절실가고적의거。재교생수유다개변량결정,기중필업생수시일개교위가공적변량。본연구이필업생수예측입수,이전대개방교육본과학생위양본,채용수거사순、차이검험、상관분석、취류분석등방법,종＂학교-년급＂、＂전업＂、＂년령-성별＂등삼개각도탐색불동비차학생필업솔화필업비례학기분포특점。연구결과표명,전대개방교육본과학생필업시간유일정적규률성,기중학생필업시간집중재제5、6、7、8등학기,모일비차학생（안＂학교-년급＂분조）최장필업시간과도위13개학기,불동학교、년급적필업비례학기분포구유일치성;인문여사회과학류전업（영어류전업제외）학생필업시간과도교단,필업솔교고;필업솔수착년령적증장이강저,이자재일정정도상정부상관관계;20세이상（함20세）다개년령단학생필업비례학기분포구유일치성。저취사필업생수적예측성위가능。
Open Education in China has been developing swiftly since 1999.However,the resource allocation including funds and staffing have not increased with the number of students.This can be attributed to the inaccurate forecast of the number of undergraduate students.A better model for forecasting the undergraduate scale of Open Education in five to ten years is needed to guide decision making on development planning,fund input decision and staffing.As we know,undergraduate scale is decided by several variables and time of their graduation is one of controllable variables.This study uses the Open Education（Bachelor Programs）of China Open Universities as the sample,adopts data analysis and mining methods such as data querying,difference tests,correlation analysis,cluster analysis,etc.,and tries to discover students＇ graduation rate and the semester distributing characteristics of graduation rate from three dimensions of university-grade,program and age-gender.The research results show that there are some regular patterns in the graduation time.First,the graduation time happens in the 5th,6th,7th and 8th semester more frequently;the max graduation time span of a group of undergraduates（grouped from the dimension of university-grade）is 13 semesters;the distributing characteristics of graduation rates in semesters with different graduation rates of the different groups of undergraduates are similar.Second,the programs of Humanities and Social Sciences（excluding English programs）are shorter in the graduation time span and higher in their graduation rates.Third,the graduation rate decreases as the students＇ age increases;and the relation between graduation rate and student＇s age is negatively correlated.The distributing characteristics of the semesters with different graduation rates of the different age groups（older than 20）are similar.