国土资源科技管理
國土資源科技管理
국토자원과기관리
Scientific and Technological Management of Land and Resources
2010年
6期
29~36
,共null页
彭佳雯 黄贤金 张兴榆 王锐
彭佳雯 黃賢金 張興榆 王銳
팽가문 황현금 장흥유 왕예
城镇用地扩张 弹性规划控制 双因素预测模型 建设生态适宜性
城鎮用地擴張 彈性規劃控製 雙因素預測模型 建設生態適宜性
성진용지확장 탄성규화공제 쌍인소예측모형 건설생태괄의성
urban land expansion; flexible planning regulation; two-factor prediction model; ecological suitability for construction
采用双因素预测模型、主成分聚类分析法、建设用地生态适宜性评价等方法，研究城镇用地扩张的规模和空间布局规划控制，以探讨具备适度弹性的城镇用地扩张规划控制的内容及模式。基于扩张经济和人口增长驱动双因素，运用GDP、非农人口弹性预测及单位用地GDP、单位用地非农人口控制构建扩张规模弹性方案预测模型；考虑经济社会发展和节约集约控制需求，选取扩张弹性控制等级分区指标，划分由相对扩张到相对收缩、有弹性到无弹性的分级弹性控制区，结合建设生态适宜性评价结果，识别城镇空间有序发展方向。结果表明：弹性控制方案下南谯区2010、2015、2020年建设用地扩张规模弹性度分别为5．81％、7．25％、8．34％，并将其划分为四级扩张弹性控制区，东南方向为扩张有序方向。
採用雙因素預測模型、主成分聚類分析法、建設用地生態適宜性評價等方法，研究城鎮用地擴張的規模和空間佈跼規劃控製，以探討具備適度彈性的城鎮用地擴張規劃控製的內容及模式。基于擴張經濟和人口增長驅動雙因素，運用GDP、非農人口彈性預測及單位用地GDP、單位用地非農人口控製構建擴張規模彈性方案預測模型；攷慮經濟社會髮展和節約集約控製需求，選取擴張彈性控製等級分區指標，劃分由相對擴張到相對收縮、有彈性到無彈性的分級彈性控製區，結閤建設生態適宜性評價結果，識彆城鎮空間有序髮展方嚮。結果錶明：彈性控製方案下南譙區2010、2015、2020年建設用地擴張規模彈性度分彆為5．81％、7．25％、8．34％，併將其劃分為四級擴張彈性控製區，東南方嚮為擴張有序方嚮。
채용쌍인소예측모형、주성분취류분석법、건설용지생태괄의성평개등방법，연구성진용지확장적규모화공간포국규화공제，이탐토구비괄도탄성적성진용지확장규화공제적내용급모식。기우확장경제화인구증장구동쌍인소，운용GDP、비농인구탄성예측급단위용지GDP、단위용지비농인구공제구건확장규모탄성방안예측모형；고필경제사회발전화절약집약공제수구，선취확장탄성공제등급분구지표，화분유상대확장도상대수축、유탄성도무탄성적분급탄성공제구，결합건설생태괄의성평개결과，식별성진공간유서발전방향。결과표명：탄성공제방안하남초구2010、2015、2020년건설용지확장규모탄성도분별위5．81％、7．25％、8．34％，병장기화분위사급확장탄성공제구，동남방향위확장유서방향。
The purpose of the paper is to discuss the content and patterns of flexible planning regulation of urban land expansion, by using methods of two-factor prediction model, principal component and cluster analysis, ecological suitability evaluation on construction land so as to explore the expansion scale and spatial distribution planning regulation of land expansion. Based on the driving factors, the prediction model of flexible schemes of urban land scale was established through flexible forecasting of GDP and nonagricultural population growth and intensive controlling of GDP and nonagricultural population per construction land. Considering the need of development and regulation, this paper selects indices of expansion regionalization based on flexible regulation levels and determines the regionalization results, which are characterized from comparatively expanding to comparatively contracting, and from flexible regulation to rigid control, identifying orderly development of urban space according to the result of construction ecological suitability evaluation. The results indicate that under the flexible regulation schemes, the flexibility degree of construction land expansion scale of Nanqiao District in 2010,2015 and 2020 would be 5. 18%, 7. 25%, 8.34%. The district is divided into four-level flexible regulation zones,with the southeast as the smart expanding direction.
