CAJ | 학술논문

本文通过实证研究证明了国际油价冲击对人民币兑美元实际汇率存在传导效应,该传导效应主要通过贸易机制和物价机制发挥作用。在同样的国际油价冲击下,中国进口额的反应比出口额稍大;但是中国出口额对人民币实际汇率的影响比进口额对人民币实际汇率的影响大;美国通胀水平反应迅速,短期内上涨幅度比中国通胀水平多,冲击发生一段时间后,中国通胀水平的变化比美国通胀水平大;在贸易机制和物价传导机制作用下,国际油价冲击对实际汇率的传导效果是先贬值后升值。
본문통과실증연구증명료국제유개충격대인민폐태미원실제회솔존재전도효응,해전도효응주요통과무역궤제화물개궤제발휘작용。재동양적국제유개충격하,중국진구액적반응비출구액초대;단시중국출구액대인민폐실제회솔적영향비진구액대인민폐실제회솔적영향대;미국통창수평반응신속,단기내상창폭도비중국통창수평다,충격발생일단시간후,중국통창수평적변화비미국통창수평대;재무역궤제화물개전도궤제작용하,국제유개충격대실제회솔적전도효과시선폄치후승치。
The paper conducts empirical analysis to prove the existence of transmission effect of international oil price shocks on RMB＇s real exchange rate.The transmission is through trade and price mechanisms.The volume of China＇s import is affected a little bit deeper than that of the export,while the export has much bigger influence on RMB＇s real exchange rate than the import.In the short term,the inflation rate in U.S.rises much more than that in China.Yet in the long run,the inflation rate in China climbs much more than that in U.S.Through trade and price mechanisms,the international oil price shocks will cause RMB＇s real exchange rate to depreciate at first,then to appreciate.