CAJ | 학술논문

笔者以农牧交错带的核心地区内蒙古呼和浩特市武川县为研究区,利用多元统计学方法建立了武川县农业用地利用变化的驱动力模型,对武川县农业用地利用变化的科技进步驱动因子及其作用机理和过程进行分析。结果表明：近十年间武川县农业用地面积变化整体上处于减少趋势,科技进步是武川县农业用地面积变化的主导因素。通过线性回归分析,农业用地面积变化与农药使用量呈显著正相关,与水果产量呈显著负相关。
필자이농목교착대적핵심지구내몽고호화호특시무천현위연구구,이용다원통계학방법건립료무천현농업용지이용변화적구동력모형,대무천현농업용지이용변화적과기진보구동인자급기작용궤리화과정진행분석。결과표명：근십년간무천현농업용지면적변화정체상처우감소추세,과기진보시무천현농업용지면적변화적주도인소。통과선성회귀분석,농업용지면적변화여농약사용량정현저정상관,여수과산량정현저부상관。
This paper will take Wuchuan in Hohhot,Inner Mongolia autonomous region,which is the core area of Farming-Pastoral Transition Zone,as the study area,using multiple statistical methods to establish the driving force model of Wuchuan County agricultural land use change.It analyzes driving factors of scientific and technological progress and mechanism and process of agricultural land changes in Wuchuan County.The results show that over the past decade,the area of agricultural land in the overall decreasing trend in Wuchuan County,Scientific and technological progress is dominant factor on the area of agricultural land changes in Wuchuan County.By linear regression analysis show that the area of agricultural land changes are significantly positively correlated with the use of pesticides,and it is significantly negatively correlated with fruit production.