CAJ | 학술논문

本文基于扩展的Kaya恒等式,应用对数平均Divisia指数法,建立了碳排放因素分解模型,定量分析了1999—2008年内蒙古的经济产出规模、人口规模、产业结构、能源结构及能源强度等因素对碳排放的影响。研究结果显示,经济产出规模对内蒙古该阶段的能源消费碳排放的贡献率最大,达到89.22%,其他影响因素按贡献率绝对值的大小排序依次是产业结构（17.01%）、能源强度（-6.71%）、人口规模（2.78%）、能源结构（-2.30%）。因此,目前内蒙古节能减排的重点在于提高能源效率、调整产业结构、优化能源结构及实施绿色GDP核算。
본문기우확전적Kaya항등식,응용대수평균Divisia지수법,건립료탄배방인소분해모형,정량분석료1999—2008년내몽고적경제산출규모、인구규모、산업결구、능원결구급능원강도등인소대탄배방적영향。연구결과현시,경제산출규모대내몽고해계단적능원소비탄배방적공헌솔최대,체도89.22%,기타영향인소안공헌솔절대치적대소배서의차시산업결구（17.01%）、능원강도（-6.71%）、인구규모（2.78%）、능원결구（-2.30%）。인차,목전내몽고절능감배적중점재우제고능원효솔、조정산업결구、우화능원결구급실시록색GDP핵산。
Based on the extended Kaya identity,this paper uses the Log-mean Divisia index method to construct a complete decomposition model,and identifies the factors that influence the changes of energy-related CO2 emission in Inner Mongolia during the period of 1999-2008,which are energy structure,energy intensity,economic structure,economic activity and population change.The results show that economic activity has the largest positive effects on CO2 emission changes in all the factors,and its contribution rate is up to 89.22%,and other factors sorted by the absolute value of contribution rate from large to small are economic structure（17.01%）,energy intensity（-6.71%）,population change（2.78%）and energy structure（-2.30%）.These results may shed light on possible development trajectories and energy transition in Inner Mongolia with a high potential for growth,which maily includes improving energy efficiency,adjusting industrial structure,optimizing energy structure and implementing green GDP accounting.