CAJ | 학술논문

文章首先将国防支出纳入Solow增长模型进行理论分析,假定国防支出通过影响技术进步对经济增长产生影响。与现有实证分析不同,文章基于1952-2008年中国的有关时间序列数据,尝试运用非线性门槛回归模型来分析国防支出与经济增长之间的数量关系。研究发现：国防支出与经济增长之间存在门槛效应,国防支出占GDP的比例低于3.434%时,国防支出占GDP的比例的增加不利于经济增长,且这种负面作用较为显著;当该比例高于3.434%时,该比例的增加将显著促进经济增长。当然,该比例并非越低越好,也并非越高越好,其局部最优规模由次级门槛值决定。
문장수선장국방지출납입Solow증장모형진행이론분석,가정국방지출통과영향기술진보대경제증장산생영향。여현유실증분석불동,문장기우1952-2008년중국적유관시간서렬수거,상시운용비선성문함회귀모형래분석국방지출여경제증장지간적수량관계。연구발현：국방지출여경제증장지간존재문함효응,국방지출점GDP적비례저우3.434%시,국방지출점GDP적비례적증가불리우경제증장,차저충부면작용교위현저;당해비례고우3.434%시,해비례적증가장현저촉진경제증장。당연,해비례병비월저월호,야병비월고월호,기국부최우규모유차급문함치결정。
This paper firstly introduces defense spending into Solow growth model and hypothesizes that defense spending affects economic growth through its impact on technological progress.Different from existing empirical analysis,this paper tries to analyze the relation between defense spending and economic growth through a nonlinear threshold regression model,using time series data of China from 1952 to 2008.The conclusions are as follows： a） there is a threshold effect between defense spending and economic growth;b）when the proportion of defense spending to GDP is lower than 3.434%,the increase in this proportion is not beneficial to economic growth,and this negative effect is significant;c） when the proportion of defense spending to GDP is higher than 3.434%,the increase in this proportion will significantly contribute to economic growth.Certainly,the optimal proportion of defense spending to GDP is neither the lowest nor the highest,and the local optimal levels of this proportion should be determined by the sub-threshold value.