CAJ | 학술논문

基于局部均衡COMPAS模型，利用两岸纺织品生产与贸易的相关数据，就ECFA对两岸纺织品生产和贸易的影响进行了模拟分析。模拟结果表明：ECFA对祖国大陆和台湾省纺织业的生产都会造成一定冲击，但由于两岸纺织行业规模的差异，ECFA对台湾省纺织业生产的冲击较大；ECFA对两岸间纺织品贸易会带来积极影响，但由于供需弹性、市场规模的差异，ECFA对台湾省纺织品出口祖国大陆的积极影响要远大于对祖国大陆纺织品出口台湾省的积极影响。
기우국부균형COMPAS모형，이용량안방직품생산여무역적상관수거，취ECFA대량안방직품생산화무역적영향진행료모의분석。모의결과표명：ECFA대조국대륙화태만성방직업적생산도회조성일정충격，단유우량안방직행업규모적차이，ECFA대태만성방직업생산적충격교대；ECFA대량안간방직품무역회대래적겁영향，단유우공수탄성、시장규모적차이，ECFA대태만성방직품출구조국대륙적적겁영향요원대우대조국대륙방직품출구태만성적적겁영향。
Based on recently developed commercial policy analysis system （COMPAS） model, this paper analyses how ECFA would affect the production, employment and export flows of Mainland and Taiwan at the industry level. By using the data of textiles production and trade between Mainland and Taiwan in 2005-2009, the paper simulates the trade effects, output effects and employment effects of ECFA between Mainland and Taiwan with the modified COMPAS model. The results of simulation show that：（1） ECFA will have certain impacts both on the mainland and Taiwan＇ s textile industry production, but owing to the differences of supply elasticity, demand elasticity and market size of cross-strait textile, the impacts of ECFA on Taiwan＇ s textile production are relatively larger; （2） ECFA will have positive impacts on cross-strait textile trade, but the positive impacts on Taiwan＇ s textile exports are comparatively greater.