CAJ | 학술논문

本文建立了一个将个人工作期分为两期的增长模型,该模型表明,消费信贷市场完美程度将对经济增长结构产生显著影响。利用中美两国数据进行的实证检验结果表明：消费信贷对经济增长结构影响显著,消费信贷比率提高将使消费占GDP比率上升;收入差距并不是导致中国消费占GDP比率下降的原因。为提高消费占GDP比率,我们应完善社会信用体系,降低信用贷款的交易成本,放宽金融业的准入限制,促进竞争,增加消费信贷供给,放松居民预算约束;同时增加政府的社会福利支出,为居民消费提供稳定预期,降低预防性储蓄动机,扩大内需。
본문건립료일개장개인공작기분위량기적증장모형,해모형표명,소비신대시장완미정도장대경제증장결구산생현저영향。이용중미량국수거진행적실증검험결과표명：소비신대대경제증장결구영향현저,소비신대비솔제고장사소비점GDP비솔상승;수입차거병불시도치중국소비점GDP비솔하강적원인。위제고소비점GDP비솔,아문응완선사회신용체계,강저신용대관적교역성본,방관금융업적준입한제,촉진경쟁,증가소비신대공급,방송거민예산약속;동시증가정부적사회복리지출,위거민소비제공은정예기,강저예방성저축동궤,확대내수。
This paper builds a growth model,which divides the personal working period into two phases.As the model shows,the degree of consumer credit market perfection exerts a notable influence on economic growth structure.Empirical test based on China-US Data indicates：consumer credit distinctly affects economic growth structure;the increase of the consumer credit percentage results in the rise of consumption-GDP ratio;income gap doesn’t lead to the decline of China’s consumption-GDP ratio.In order to increase consumption-GDP ratio,the following aspects need to be focused：by means of improving social credit system,lowering credit transaction costs,relaxing access restrictions in financial sectorto promote competition,consumer credit supply will be increased and resident budget constraints will be relaxed;Meanwhile,with the rise of government expenditure on social welfare,a stable household consumption expectancy will be offered,while precautionary saving motive will diminish and domestic demand will be expanded.