经济评论
經濟評論
경제평론
Economic Review
2011年
1期
127~134
,共null页
贸易顺差 国民收入分配 储蓄率 财政分权 信贷约束
貿易順差 國民收入分配 儲蓄率 財政分權 信貸約束
무역순차 국민수입분배 저축솔 재정분권 신대약속
Trade Surplus; National Income Distribution; National Savings Rate; Fiscal Decentralization; Credit Constraints
在已有文献基础上,本文首先分析确认了影响中国贸易顺差的三个基本因素,即人民币实际汇率、贸易政策以及国民收入总量,但鉴于2004-2008年期间贸易顺差在国内生产总值中所占比重的实际走势,仍然无法通过这三方面的变化情况予以说明,因而进一步将中国贸易顺差的成因归结为储蓄投资失衡这一国民收入的结构性变化。通过对相关文献及政府有关政策的综合分析发现,无论是导致中国居民储蓄率上升的国民收入分配结构偏向,还是引起我国储蓄向投资的转化率大幅下滑的大规模数量型货币政策,可能都与中国式分权体制存在着重要关联。未来还应针对与此相关的若干问题展开进一步的探索。
在已有文獻基礎上,本文首先分析確認瞭影響中國貿易順差的三箇基本因素,即人民幣實際彙率、貿易政策以及國民收入總量,但鑒于2004-2008年期間貿易順差在國內生產總值中所佔比重的實際走勢,仍然無法通過這三方麵的變化情況予以說明,因而進一步將中國貿易順差的成因歸結為儲蓄投資失衡這一國民收入的結構性變化。通過對相關文獻及政府有關政策的綜閤分析髮現,無論是導緻中國居民儲蓄率上升的國民收入分配結構偏嚮,還是引起我國儲蓄嚮投資的轉化率大幅下滑的大規模數量型貨幣政策,可能都與中國式分權體製存在著重要關聯。未來還應針對與此相關的若榦問題展開進一步的探索。
재이유문헌기출상,본문수선분석학인료영향중국무역순차적삼개기본인소,즉인민폐실제회솔、무역정책이급국민수입총량,단감우2004-2008년기간무역순차재국내생산총치중소점비중적실제주세,잉연무법통과저삼방면적변화정황여이설명,인이진일보장중국무역순차적성인귀결위저축투자실형저일국민수입적결구성변화。통과대상관문헌급정부유관정책적종합분석발현,무론시도치중국거민저축솔상승적국민수입분배결구편향,환시인기아국저축향투자적전화솔대폭하활적대규모수량형화폐정책,가능도여중국식분권체제존재착중요관련。미래환응침대여차상관적약간문제전개진일보적탐색。
Based on the former researches,firstly,the paper confirms there are three basic factors determining China’s trade surplus.Secondly,for the practical situation of real effective exchange rate of RMB,trade policy and gross national income’s failure to explain the evolution of share of China’s trade surplus in GDP,the paper focuses on saving-investment imbalance,which relates with national income structure.Thirdly,integrating relative literatures on economic policy,the paper finds that not only the deflection of national income distribution which leads to high saving rate but also the huge quantity type of monetary policy which decreases the ratio of saving being turned to investment,may have high correlativity with Chinese-style decentralization system.Some topics concerning with this problem should be explored further in the future.
