国际经贸探索
國際經貿探索
국제경무탐색
International Economics and Trade Research
2011年
1期
18~23
,共null页
ECFA 农产品 局部均衡模型 贸易效应
ECFA 農產品 跼部均衡模型 貿易效應
ECFA 농산품 국부균형모형 무역효응
ECFA; agricultural product; COMPAS model; trade effect
文章基于局部均衡COMPAS模型,从产业层面上分析了两岸经济合作框架协议(ECFA)影响两岸特定行业的产出、就业、贸易等经济活动的内在机理。基于近年来两岸农产品生产与贸易的相关数据,就ECFA对两岸农产品生产和贸易的影响大小进行了模拟分析,结果表明:由于两岸农产品在产品品质与上市时间等方面存在较大差异,建立ECFA对大陆和台湾农产品生产的冲击都非常有限;ECFA的建立将极大地推动两岸农产品贸易,台湾农产品对大陆出口大约会增加14%,大陆农产品对台湾出口大约会增加17%。
文章基于跼部均衡COMPAS模型,從產業層麵上分析瞭兩岸經濟閤作框架協議(ECFA)影響兩岸特定行業的產齣、就業、貿易等經濟活動的內在機理。基于近年來兩岸農產品生產與貿易的相關數據,就ECFA對兩岸農產品生產和貿易的影響大小進行瞭模擬分析,結果錶明:由于兩岸農產品在產品品質與上市時間等方麵存在較大差異,建立ECFA對大陸和檯灣農產品生產的遲擊都非常有限;ECFA的建立將極大地推動兩岸農產品貿易,檯灣農產品對大陸齣口大約會增加14%,大陸農產品對檯灣齣口大約會增加17%。
문장기우국부균형COMPAS모형,종산업층면상분석료량안경제합작광가협의(ECFA)영향량안특정행업적산출、취업、무역등경제활동적내재궤리。기우근년래량안농산품생산여무역적상관수거,취ECFA대량안농산품생산화무역적영향대소진행료모의분석,결과표명:유우량안농산품재산품품질여상시시간등방면존재교대차이,건립ECFA대대륙화태만농산품생산적충격도비상유한;ECFA적건립장겁대지추동량안농산품무역,태만농산품대대륙출구대약회증가14%,대륙농산품대태만출구대약회증가17%。
Based on the recently-developed Commercial Policy Analysis System (COMPAS) model, this paper analyzes how ECFA between the Mainland and Taiwan would affect the production, employment and export flows of the two parties at the industrial level. Since the cross-strait agricultural products vary in type and quality, the impacts of the establishment of ECFA on both the mainland and Taiwan's agricultural production are very limited. As the import tariffs of cross-strait agricultural products are high, the establishment of ECFA will greatly promote the cross-strait trade of agricultural products. Taiwan's agricultural product export to the mainland and the mainland's agricultural product export to Taiwan will increase by about 14% and 17% respectively.