CAJ | 학술논문

本文使用中国29个省份1961-2008年间的面板数据，时投资与增长之间的关系进行了检验。发现投资对长期GDP增长存在显著的“增长效应”，而其短期效应不太明显。相对东部省份和中部省份，西部省份投资的“增长效应”更为显著。在考虑了稳健性问题后，上述结论依然成立。这表明在经济发展的不同阶段或者在不同的前沿技术差距上，投资对经济增长的作用存在差异。研究还发现，新古典增长模型可能低估了投资在长期中的作用。
본문사용중국29개성빈1961-2008년간적면판수거，시투자여증장지간적관계진행료검험。발현투자대장기GDP증장존재현저적“증장효응”，이기단기효응불태명현。상대동부성빈화중부성빈，서부성빈투자적“증장효응”경위현저。재고필료은건성문제후，상술결론의연성립。저표명재경제발전적불동계단혹자재불동적전연기술차거상，투자대경제증장적작용존재차이。연구환발현，신고전증장모형가능저고료투자재장기중적작용。
Using annual data for 29 provinces in the period of 1961-2008, we present evidence of a positive relationship between investment as a share of GDP and the long- run growth rate of GDP per worker. This result is especially robust for the sub- sample of western provinces, but not for the sub- sample of eastern and central provinces. After controlling for some econometric issues, the findings above also hold. This may give some hints that in different development step there may be different role for investment in catch- up the growth at the fron- tier. Another finding of the paper is the neoclassical growth accounting framework may render the underestimation the role of investment.