CAJ | 학술논문

对跨国投资风险做出了明确的概念界定。基于此,对相应的风险评估提出了一个可量化的分析框架和方法体系,并据此构建了将跨国投资的潜在投资收益与风险成本进行对接的跨国投资风险评估模型。该模型的核心是结合阶段适应性、风险相对性、风险与回报的共存性等特点而构建的风险响应矩阵。区别于其他类似研究,该评估模型及其响应矩阵结合定性分析与定量指标,在给出投资机会与风险排序的数值级别的同时,提供更为直观的投资机会与风险排序的图示。该模型及矩阵是构建具有高度可操作性的国家风险评估体系的重要环节。
대과국투자풍험주출료명학적개념계정。기우차,대상응적풍험평고제출료일개가양화적분석광가화방법체계,병거차구건료장과국투자적잠재투자수익여풍험성본진행대접적과국투자풍험평고모형。해모형적핵심시결합계단괄응성、풍험상대성、풍험여회보적공존성등특점이구건적풍험향응구진。구별우기타유사연구,해평고모형급기향응구진결합정성분석여정량지표,재급출투자궤회여풍험배서적수치급별적동시,제공경위직관적투자궤회여풍험배서적도시。해모형급구진시구건구유고도가조작성적국가풍험평고체계적중요배절。
This paper proposes a set of concrete conceptual definitions of risks involved in cross-country investment.Based on these definitions,it provides a quantitative analytical framework and methodological mechanism in assessing such risks.Deriving from the framework and the mechanism,it presents a risk evaluation model for cross-country investment through constructing a linkage between potential investment returns and costs in the risks.The core of this model is the building of a response matrix which captures the flexibility,relativity,co-existence between the risks and returns involved in cross-country investment.In comparison with other works in this field,this model and its matrix would combine qualitative analysis and quantitative indexing,which not only provides more intuitive presentation of investment opportunities and risks,but also gives the ranking orders of such opportunities and risks.The model and its matrix will be a important step towards building a highly executable country risk evaluation system.