CAJ | 학술논문

笔者采用1997年～2009年相关统计数据，考察了中国家庭债务、房价波动与居民消费之间的动态相关性。研究发现，从长期来看，家庭债务、房价波动与居民消费存在均衡关系，房价波动对居民消费影响显著，但家庭债务拉动居民消费的直接效应较小；从短期波动关系来看，当居民消费的短期波动偏离长期均衡时，将以-0．42的调整力度把非均衡状态拉到均衡状态。要刺激居民消费需求，应加快金融市场建设，注重发挥住房的财富效应并合理配置家庭资产结构。
필자채용1997년～2009년상관통계수거，고찰료중국가정채무、방개파동여거민소비지간적동태상관성。연구발현，종장기래간，가정채무、방개파동여거민소비존재균형관계，방개파동대거민소비영향현저，단가정채무랍동거민소비적직접효응교소；종단기파동관계래간，당거민소비적단기파동편리장기균형시，장이-0．42적조정력도파비균형상태랍도균형상태。요자격거민소비수구，응가쾌금융시장건설，주중발휘주방적재부효응병합리배치가정자산결구。
Using the time series data from 1997 to 2009, the authors analyze the dynamic relationship among household debt, housing price and consumption. The result indicates that there is a long- term equilibrium relationship among household debt, housing price and consumption in the long term ; the fluctuation of housing price has a positive and significant effect on consumption, while the effect of household debt on consumption is insignificant ; when the household debt deviates from the short - term fluctuation to long - term equilibrium, the readjustment will convert non - equilibrium to equilibrium at minus 0.42. In order to stimulate consumption, the authors put forward the relevant policy, such as accelerating the construction of finance market and attaching importance to the wealth effect of house and allocating household assets rationally.