CAJ | 학술논문

本文从结构转化视角分析＂刘易斯拐点＂和人口转变对于中国经济增长可持续性的影响。通过对跨国面板数据分析,结果表明：劳动力比率对资本形成率产生显著的正向影响,劳动力与资本的有效结合是人口红利得以发挥和经济持续增长的重要条件;总抚养比提高不利于资本积累,将对经济增长产生不利影响。中国经验数据分析显示：经济结构转化,劳动力跨部门转移,是中国经济得以长期、高速增长的关键,高投资率是该增长模式的必然结果;＂刘易斯拐点＂即将到来,农村剩余劳动力逐渐消失,人口年龄结构变化将使新增劳动力明显减少;如果继续保持较高的资本形成率,资本进一步深化,将使资本边际报酬率快速递减,现有的高投资增长模式难以维持,中国经济将逐步进入低速增长阶段。
본문종결구전화시각분석＂류역사괴점＂화인구전변대우중국경제증장가지속성적영향。통과대과국면판수거분석,결과표명：노동력비솔대자본형성솔산생현저적정향영향,노동력여자본적유효결합시인구홍리득이발휘화경제지속증장적중요조건;총무양비제고불리우자본적루,장대경제증장산생불리영향。중국경험수거분석현시：경제결구전화,노동력과부문전이,시중국경제득이장기、고속증장적관건,고투자솔시해증장모식적필연결과;＂류역사괴점＂즉장도래,농촌잉여노동력축점소실,인구년령결구변화장사신증노동력명현감소;여과계속보지교고적자본형성솔,자본진일보심화,장사자본변제보수솔쾌속체감,현유적고투자증장모식난이유지,중국경제장축보진입저속증장계단。
With the shift from unlimited to limited labor,this paper analyzes the influence on sustainability of China＇s economic growth exerted by ＂Lewis turning point＂ and demo-graphic transition.Based on analysis of multinational panel data,results show that：labor ratio has a significantly positive impact on capital formation rate;Effective combination of labor and capital plays an important role in demographic dividend and is a vital for sustain-able economic growth;Increase in the gross dependency ratio is not conducive to capital accumulation,which will have a negative impact on economic growth.Empirical study indicates：Transformation of economic structure and inter-departmental transfer of labor are key to high growth of China＇s economy in a long period;High investment rate is the inevi-table result of the growth model;＂Turning Point＂is about to come,the rural surplus labor will gradually disappear,demographic transition will obviously reduce fresh labor;If a high rate of capital formation were to maintain,capital were to further deepen,the mar-ginal return on capital would decline rapidly and the current high investment growth model would be hard to sustain,so China＇s economy will gradually enter the stage of low growth.