林业经济问题
林業經濟問題
임업경제문제
Problems of Forestry Economics
2010年
6期
525~530
,共null页
家具产业集聚 外部动因 实证分析
傢具產業集聚 外部動因 實證分析
가구산업집취 외부동인 실증분석
Furniture Industry Cluster; External Motivation; Empirical analysis
通过分析获取了产业集聚外部动因有效的变量,采集1988~2008年家具产业两位数的相关数据,研究家具产业基尼系数、家具产业国内消费量、出口量、全国固定投资额、居民消费水平5个变量的关系,以家具产业基尼系数为被解释变量建立PCA模型,并提取方差进行回归分析,并对变量间进行了格兰杰因果关系检验。结论表明投资与家具产业集聚是双向因果的关系,国内家具消费与家具产业集聚是弱的双向因果关系,家具出口则是单向因果关系。揭示出家具产业长期以来的低附加值生产方式,在没有或外部需求出现较强波动时,可能会造成多米诺骨牌效应,从而加快产业集聚反向替代的进程。
通過分析穫取瞭產業集聚外部動因有效的變量,採集1988~2008年傢具產業兩位數的相關數據,研究傢具產業基尼繫數、傢具產業國內消費量、齣口量、全國固定投資額、居民消費水平5箇變量的關繫,以傢具產業基尼繫數為被解釋變量建立PCA模型,併提取方差進行迴歸分析,併對變量間進行瞭格蘭傑因果關繫檢驗。結論錶明投資與傢具產業集聚是雙嚮因果的關繫,國內傢具消費與傢具產業集聚是弱的雙嚮因果關繫,傢具齣口則是單嚮因果關繫。揭示齣傢具產業長期以來的低附加值生產方式,在沒有或外部需求齣現較彊波動時,可能會造成多米諾骨牌效應,從而加快產業集聚反嚮替代的進程。
통과분석획취료산업집취외부동인유효적변량,채집1988~2008년가구산업량위수적상관수거,연구가구산업기니계수、가구산업국내소비량、출구량、전국고정투자액、거민소비수평5개변량적관계,이가구산업기니계수위피해석변량건립PCA모형,병제취방차진행회귀분석,병대변량간진행료격란걸인과관계검험。결론표명투자여가구산업집취시쌍향인과적관계,국내가구소비여가구산업집취시약적쌍향인과관계,가구출구칙시단향인과관계。게시출가구산업장기이래적저부가치생산방식,재몰유혹외부수구출현교강파동시,가능회조성다미낙골패효응,종이가쾌산업집취반향체대적진정。
The effective variables of industry cluster are gained through analyzing the external driving power.The relationship between the five variables are researched from two decimal data of year 1988 to 2008,which are Gini coefficient of the furniture industry,domestic consumption of furniture industry,furniture industry exports,fixed investment in the country and the national consumption level.Gini coefficient as explanatory variables,PCA model is established and extracted variance regression is researched,Granger test results are also conducted to analyze.It is concluded that investment and furniture industrial cluster is the two-way causal relationship and consumption and domestic furniture is the weak two-way causality,furniture export appears one way relationship.Production of furniture industry is the low value-added way for long time.It may cause a Domino phenomenon if external demand appears strong fluctuations,thus speeding up the process of industrial agglomeration reverse substitution.