软科学
軟科學
연과학
Soft Science
2011年
2期
1~6
,共null页
追赶效应 EKC KC 动态模型
追趕效應 EKC KC 動態模型
추간효응 EKC KC 동태모형
catch-up; Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC); Kuznets Curve(KC); dynamic model
以一个动态追赶模型来模拟EC和EKC的倒U形,并进一步确认收入不公平也与环境破坏的正向关系的可能,模拟结果显示收入差距和环境质量的关系在追赶初期正向关系更为显著,对CO2、SO2和基尼系数的跨国数据检验证实了作者模型的判断,CO2体现出的EKC是一个先减速增加、后加速增加,然后减速下降的过程,SO2则是一个先减速增加,后加速增加的过程,但这一结果并不妨碍整体简单回归的凹性,这也是常规凹性检验中所忽略的部分;同时在两种污染物对基尼系数的回归中也发现了模型中出现的正向关系,即环境恶化与收入差距扩大并存。
以一箇動態追趕模型來模擬EC和EKC的倒U形,併進一步確認收入不公平也與環境破壞的正嚮關繫的可能,模擬結果顯示收入差距和環境質量的關繫在追趕初期正嚮關繫更為顯著,對CO2、SO2和基尼繫數的跨國數據檢驗證實瞭作者模型的判斷,CO2體現齣的EKC是一箇先減速增加、後加速增加,然後減速下降的過程,SO2則是一箇先減速增加,後加速增加的過程,但這一結果併不妨礙整體簡單迴歸的凹性,這也是常規凹性檢驗中所忽略的部分;同時在兩種汙染物對基尼繫數的迴歸中也髮現瞭模型中齣現的正嚮關繫,即環境噁化與收入差距擴大併存。
이일개동태추간모형래모의EC화EKC적도U형,병진일보학인수입불공평야여배경파배적정향관계적가능,모의결과현시수입차거화배경질량적관계재추간초기정향관계경위현저,대CO2、SO2화기니계수적과국수거검험증실료작자모형적판단,CO2체현출적EKC시일개선감속증가、후가속증가,연후감속하강적과정,SO2칙시일개선감속증가,후가속증가적과정,단저일결과병불방애정체간단회귀적요성,저야시상규요성검험중소홀략적부분;동시재량충오염물대기니계수적회귀중야발현료모형중출현적정향관계,즉배경악화여수입차거확대병존。
The environmental Kuznets curve assumes an inverted U-shaped relation between environmental damage and income level.In addition to income levels,the inequality of income is positively related to environmental degradation.We provide an additional argument,based on dynamic catch-up model,including KCEKC and a measure of income dispersion in empirical analysis.At the early stage of catch-up,income inequality is positively related to total environmental damage and test of international data of CO2,SO2 and Gini Coefficient confirms our model.CO2 shows the process of slow,accelerating increasing and slow decreasing,while SO2 is slow and accelerating increasing.Results did not go against the simple regression.It indicates that the EKC and the relationship between income inequality and the environment are coinciding with our model.