地域研究与开发
地域研究與開髮
지역연구여개발
Areal Research and Development
2011年
1期
19~24
,共null页
低碳经济 碳排放量 面板数据模型 面板单位根检验 面板协整检验
低碳經濟 碳排放量 麵闆數據模型 麵闆單位根檢驗 麵闆協整檢驗
저탄경제 탄배방량 면판수거모형 면판단위근검험 면판협정검험
a low-carbon economy ; carbon emission ; panel data models ; unit root tests of panel data; the cointegration tests of panel data
为促进省域低碳经济发展,以碳排放量为研究对象,采用5个解释变量建立面板数据模型。研究发现:经济增长和产业结构是影响东中部碳排放量的2个最重要变量,影响系数东部依次为0.602,0.544,中部依次为1.441,0.407,其次是人均收入水平、人口增长和能源价格;在西部,人均收入水平和产业结构是影响其碳排放量的2个最重要变量,影响系数分别为0.967,0.788,其次是人口增长、能源价格和经济增长状况;能源价格影响度从东到西依次提高,特别是人均收入对西部碳排放量影响度远远超过东部;因地制宜,对于东、中部地区政府要重视优化经济增长方式和调整其产业结构,对于西部更应重视调整人均收入政策及加强能源价格控制。面板单位根检验我国东中西部各变量均存在一阶单整,面板协整检验省域碳排放量与人们收入水平、经济增长水平、产业结构、能源价格和人口增长之间存在长期稳定内生经济关系。
為促進省域低碳經濟髮展,以碳排放量為研究對象,採用5箇解釋變量建立麵闆數據模型。研究髮現:經濟增長和產業結構是影響東中部碳排放量的2箇最重要變量,影響繫數東部依次為0.602,0.544,中部依次為1.441,0.407,其次是人均收入水平、人口增長和能源價格;在西部,人均收入水平和產業結構是影響其碳排放量的2箇最重要變量,影響繫數分彆為0.967,0.788,其次是人口增長、能源價格和經濟增長狀況;能源價格影響度從東到西依次提高,特彆是人均收入對西部碳排放量影響度遠遠超過東部;因地製宜,對于東、中部地區政府要重視優化經濟增長方式和調整其產業結構,對于西部更應重視調整人均收入政策及加彊能源價格控製。麵闆單位根檢驗我國東中西部各變量均存在一階單整,麵闆協整檢驗省域碳排放量與人們收入水平、經濟增長水平、產業結構、能源價格和人口增長之間存在長期穩定內生經濟關繫。
위촉진성역저탄경제발전,이탄배방량위연구대상,채용5개해석변량건립면판수거모형。연구발현:경제증장화산업결구시영향동중부탄배방량적2개최중요변량,영향계수동부의차위0.602,0.544,중부의차위1.441,0.407,기차시인균수입수평、인구증장화능원개격;재서부,인균수입수평화산업결구시영향기탄배방량적2개최중요변량,영향계수분별위0.967,0.788,기차시인구증장、능원개격화경제증장상황;능원개격영향도종동도서의차제고,특별시인균수입대서부탄배방량영향도원원초과동부;인지제의,대우동、중부지구정부요중시우화경제증장방식화조정기산업결구,대우서부경응중시조정인균수입정책급가강능원개격공제。면판단위근검험아국동중서부각변량균존재일계단정,면판협정검험성역탄배방량여인문수입수평、경제증장수평、산업결구、능원개격화인구증장지간존재장기은정내생경제관계。
The article which is focus on carbon emission uses five explanatory variables to establish panel data models for development of a low-carbon economy of Chinese provincial. The results show as follows: the most important factors which affect carbon emission of Eastern China and Central China are economic growth and industrial structure, the influencing coefficients of Eastern China are 0. 602 , 0. 544 respectively, and they are 1. 441,0.407 gy pricing and economic growth; The influencing coefficients of energy pricing is increasing gradually from east to west, especially the influencing coefficients which the level of per capita income has effect on carbon emission of Western China is far more greater than Eastern China; Suiting measures to local conditions, government should fo- cus on optimizing the mode of economic growth and adjusting industrial restructure in Eastern China and Central China, but emphasizing on control of per capita income level and energy pricing in Western China. By using of unit root tests of panel data, all variables are exist first order cointegration in Eastern China, Central China and Western China. Through the cointegration tests of panel data, there are exist endogenous economic relationships among carbon emission of Chinese provincial and the level of per capita income, economic growth, industrial structure, energy pricing and population growth. At last, relevant policy recommendations are put forward.