CAJ | 학술논문

借鉴传统的元胞自动机模型自下而上的运行规则，通过引入规划控制层，将自下而上和自上而下2种运行规则结合起来，构建了城市空间扩展模型，简化了传统城市空间扩展模型计算的数据量。以长沙市为例，采用1996，1999，2002，2005年城市规划资料数据，运用城市空间扩展模型将长沙城市空间分为12个组团分片模拟，并结合人口经济模型，预测了2020牟长沙城市建设用地面积、人口经济与各个片区城市空间扩展等状况，为城市规划管理决策提供参考。
차감전통적원포자동궤모형자하이상적운행규칙，통과인입규화공제층，장자하이상화자상이하2충운행규칙결합기래，구건료성시공간확전모형，간화료전통성시공간확전모형계산적수거량。이장사시위례，채용1996，1999，2002，2005년성시규화자료수거，운용성시공간확전모형장장사성시공간분위12개조단분편모의，병결합인구경제모형，예측료2020모장사성시건설용지면적、인구경제여각개편구성시공간확전등상황，위성시규화관리결책제공삼고。
The working mechanisms of the traditional cellular automata model are from bottom to top. From the city planning angle and by leading into the planning control layer, the urban space expand model is designed in this paper, which combines the working mechanisms between from bottom to top and from top to bottom. So it simplifies the calculation data of the traditional city cellular automata model. In this paper, the authors use remote sensing images and urban land use maps, urban regulatory plan maps, urban road network maps of Changsha in1996,1999,2002,2005 and developing information of urban land for the urban space expand model. In the first, Changsha urban space is divided into 12 different sub-groups in order to improve its imitation accuracy and obtain a better imitating result in this paper. In the Second, the 12 different sub-groups in Changsha are dynamic simulated based on the urban space expand model which the authors designed in this paper, and combined with the population and economy models. At last, the paper predicts the urban construction land area, population, economy and the expansion of urban space in 12 different sub-groups in Changsha in 2020. The results reveal that the urban space expand model is a reasonable model to predict urban space expand to some extent, so the authors wish the points of view in the paper can provide the decision-making basis for city planning and management.