CAJ | 학술논문

中国是世界大豆进口大国,美国、巴西和阿根廷形成了向中国出口大豆的寡头垄断格局。但由于跨国粮商对大豆产业链的控制,中国在国际大豆市场缺乏定价权,卖方寡头垄断也被弱化。追求出口利益诱使巴西与美国在中国大豆市场竞争。从巴西大豆对中国的出口潜力、定价能力和政策动向3个维度考察了在跨国粮商控制下的中国大豆进口市场上巴西与美国之间的竞争关系。研究发现：长期内巴西对中国出口的大豆数量替代美国,短期内巴西出口旺季垄断能力加强且旺季持续时间延长;巴西积极调整大豆生产和贸易政策既提高了大豆出口自主定价能力和国际竞争力,又有利于拓展中国大豆进口政策选择空间,改善中国从大豆进口中的贸易获益。最后,简要阐述了该结论蕴含的政策意义。
중국시세계대두진구대국,미국、파서화아근정형성료향중국출구대두적과두롱단격국。단유우과국량상대대두산업련적공제,중국재국제대두시장결핍정개권,매방과두롱단야피약화。추구출구이익유사파서여미국재중국대두시장경쟁。종파서대두대중국적출구잠력、정개능력화정책동향3개유도고찰료재과국량상공제하적중국대두진구시장상파서여미국지간적경쟁관계。연구발현：장기내파서대중국출구적대두수량체대미국,단기내파서출구왕계롱단능력가강차왕계지속시간연장;파서적겁조정대두생산화무역정책기제고료대두출구자주정개능력화국제경쟁력,우유리우탁전중국대두진구정책선택공간,개선중국종대두진구중적무역획익。최후,간요천술료해결론온함적정책의의。
China is a large import country of soybean in the world.The United States,Brazil and Argentina have become the oligopolies in China＇s soybean import market.But multinational grain companies have controlled the soybean industrial chain so that China loses the pricing power in the soybean market of the world,and the oligopoly was also weakened.Seeking export benefit will induce Brazil to compete with the U.S.in China＇s soybean import market.This paper investigates the competition between Brazil and America under the control of multinational grain companies from three dimensions：export potential,pricing power and policy trend.The result shows that Brazil replaces the U.S.in the soybean quantity export to China in long-term,and in short-term,Brazil enhances monopoly power in its peak-season and extends the duration of its peak-season;the active adjustments of production and trade policies have not only promoted the pricing power and international competitiveness of Brazilian soybean export,but also helped China enrich the policy choices and improve the welfare from soybean import.Finally,this paper briefly discusses the policy implications contained in the conclusions.