中国人口资源与环境
中國人口資源與環境
중국인구자원여배경
China Polulation.Resources and Environment
2011年
2期
141~146
,共null页
王媛 魏本勇 方修琦 和夏冰 杨会民
王媛 魏本勇 方脩琦 和夏冰 楊會民
왕원 위본용 방수기 화하빙 양회민
国际贸易 贸易隐含碳 投入产出模型 对数平均D氏指数法
國際貿易 貿易隱含碳 投入產齣模型 對數平均D氏指數法
국제무역 무역은함탄 투입산출모형 대수평균D씨지수법
international trade; carbon emissions embodied in trade; input-output model; LMDI
对国际贸易产生环境影响的定量研究正日益受到关注,特别是对隐含碳的研究。以中国2005年为例,对中国国际贸易隐含碳进行估算,应用对数平均D氏指数法（LMDI）对影响隐含碳净转移的因素进行分解分析。结果显示中国因生产排放碳量远大于其消费需要排放的碳量,从国外净转移到中国的隐含碳为395.66MtC;净转移隐含碳影响因素中强度效应（进出口商品完全碳排放系数差异）贡献率为60%,规模效应（进出额差异）贡献率为55%,结构效应（进出口结构差异）贡献率为-14%,此结果表明中国相比国外的高碳排放强度是造成目前碳转移额外增加的主要因素,分析结构效应发现中国主要净出口行业大部分不是高碳排放强度行业,而净进口行业却主要由高碳排放强度行业构成,特别是与碳排放密切相关的能源行业居净进口行业首位。
對國際貿易產生環境影響的定量研究正日益受到關註,特彆是對隱含碳的研究。以中國2005年為例,對中國國際貿易隱含碳進行估算,應用對數平均D氏指數法（LMDI）對影響隱含碳淨轉移的因素進行分解分析。結果顯示中國因生產排放碳量遠大于其消費需要排放的碳量,從國外淨轉移到中國的隱含碳為395.66MtC;淨轉移隱含碳影響因素中彊度效應（進齣口商品完全碳排放繫數差異）貢獻率為60%,規模效應（進齣額差異）貢獻率為55%,結構效應（進齣口結構差異）貢獻率為-14%,此結果錶明中國相比國外的高碳排放彊度是造成目前碳轉移額外增加的主要因素,分析結構效應髮現中國主要淨齣口行業大部分不是高碳排放彊度行業,而淨進口行業卻主要由高碳排放彊度行業構成,特彆是與碳排放密切相關的能源行業居淨進口行業首位。
대국제무역산생배경영향적정량연구정일익수도관주,특별시대은함탄적연구。이중국2005년위례,대중국국제무역은함탄진행고산,응용대수평균D씨지수법（LMDI）대영향은함탄정전이적인소진행분해분석。결과현시중국인생산배방탄량원대우기소비수요배방적탄량,종국외정전이도중국적은함탄위395.66MtC;정전이은함탄영향인소중강도효응（진출구상품완전탄배방계수차이）공헌솔위60%,규모효응（진출액차이）공헌솔위55%,결구효응（진출구결구차이）공헌솔위-14%,차결과표명중국상비국외적고탄배방강도시조성목전탄전이액외증가적주요인소,분석결구효응발현중국주요정출구행업대부분불시고탄배방강도행업,이정진구행업각주요유고탄배방강도행업구성,특별시여탄배방밀절상관적능원행업거정진구행업수위。
Recently much attention has been given to quantifying the environmental impacts of international trade and there is an increasing concern over the impacts of carbon dioxide transfer embodied within international trade.In this paper,the balance of carbon emissions embodied in China＇s international trade for the year 2005 was calculated,and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index（LMDI） was used in decomposition analysis of effect factors.The results show that production-based carbon emissions are much larger than consumption-based carbon emissions in China,and net transfer to China in terms of carbon emissions embodied within trade is 395.66 MtC.The contribution rate of intensity effect（the difference between total carbon emissions intensity of exports and that of imports） is 60%,the contribution rate of activity effect（trade surplus） is 55%,and the contribution rate of structure effect（the difference between structure of exports and that of imports） is-14%.According to results,high carbon emissions intensity and trade surplus of China are the major factors that affect carbon transfer to China,and intensity effect is more important than activity effect.It＇s worth noticing that structure effect is negative.Because most of China net exports belong to low carbon emissions intensity industries,however most of China net imports belong to high carbon emissions intensity industries,especially energy industries that have a close relationship with carbon emissions.
