CAJ | 학술논문

本研究采用弹性脱钩方法和Tapio评价标准,对比国家五年计划,分阶段对我国1978年到2008年二氧化碳排放与经济发展关系进行了历史分析,分析表明：各阶段影响我国二氧化碳排放与经济发展关系的因素不同;我国改革开放30年来二氧化碳与经济发展总体处于弱脱钩状态,经济发展与碳排放脱钩状态不显著。以此历史经验数据为基础,结合权威经济学者对经济发展的不同预期,根据不同发展情境构建了我国2020年碳排放强度缺口的计算模型,对我国实现承诺减排目标进行分析,结果表明：我国要在2020年实现二氧化碳减排40%-45%的承诺,压力巨大;经济增长、基础设施投资和工业化进一步发展是碳排放增加的主要推动力,技术进步,特别是能耗强度降低则是我国实现二氧化碳排放强度降低的主要手段;在保证经济增长的同时实现碳强度降低任重而道远,转变经济增长方式势在必行。
본연구채용탄성탈구방법화Tapio평개표준,대비국가오년계화,분계단대아국1978년도2008년이양화탄배방여경제발전관계진행료역사분석,분석표명：각계단영향아국이양화탄배방여경제발전관계적인소불동;아국개혁개방30년래이양화탄여경제발전총체처우약탈구상태,경제발전여탄배방탈구상태불현저。이차역사경험수거위기출,결합권위경제학자대경제발전적불동예기,근거불동발전정경구건료아국2020년탄배방강도결구적계산모형,대아국실현승낙감배목표진행분석,결과표명：아국요재2020년실현이양화탄감배40%-45%적승낙,압력거대;경제증장、기출설시투자화공업화진일보발전시탄배방증가적주요추동력,기술진보,특별시능모강도강저칙시아국실현이양화탄배방강도강저적주요수단;재보증경제증장적동시실현탄강도강저임중이도원,전변경제증장방식세재필행。
This paper analyzes the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development at different stages of the National Five Year Plans from 1978 to 2008 though adopting to elastic decoupling methods and Tapio evaluation criteria.The analysis shows that the influencing factors to the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development in China are different,and economic development and carbon emissions has a weak decoupling relationship since the recent thirties years of reform and development in China.It is difficult to achieve the goal that we will reduce carbon emission by 40%-50% in 2020 based on the data from historical experience and the different expectations on economic development from economists.Though constructing the calculation model of carbon emissions intensity gap according to different development scenarios,it shows that economic growth,infrastructure investment and further development of industrialization are the main drivers to increase carbon emissions,while technological progress especially the reduction of carbon emissions is the primary means to reduce carbon emissions in China.It is imperative to convert economic growth mode and we still have a long way to go to maintain economic growth and reduce carbon intensity.