重庆理工大学学报：社会科学版
重慶理工大學學報：社會科學版
중경리공대학학보：사회과학판
Journal of Chongqing Institute of Technology
2011年
1期
61~71
,共null页
利率 房价 协整检验 主成分分析 Almon滞后模型
利率 房價 協整檢驗 主成分分析 Almon滯後模型
리솔 방개 협정검험 주성분분석 Almon체후모형
interest-rate index; housing price; Co-integration Test; Principal Component Analysis; Almon lag model
从实证的角度分析货币政策对房价的影响。选择6个利率指标建立利率指标体系,利用主成分分析法计算利率指数。建立利率指数与房屋销售价格指数的A lmon滞后模型,模型的拟合优度为66%,说明利率可以解释房价波动的66%。模型表明利率与房价负相关,并且利率对房价的影响存在8个滞后期。对1998年1季度至2009年4季度房屋销售价格指数、利率指数、房地产开发投资和商品房销售额4个指标变化情况的分析表明,单一的、缺乏配套政策支持的利率政策对房价无法完全实现预期调控目标,要使其在房价调控中发挥应有作用,应该保持利率调控作用机制畅通,并使利率政策与其他货币政策、财政政策、土地政策等政策互相配合。
從實證的角度分析貨幣政策對房價的影響。選擇6箇利率指標建立利率指標體繫,利用主成分分析法計算利率指數。建立利率指數與房屋銷售價格指數的A lmon滯後模型,模型的擬閤優度為66%,說明利率可以解釋房價波動的66%。模型錶明利率與房價負相關,併且利率對房價的影響存在8箇滯後期。對1998年1季度至2009年4季度房屋銷售價格指數、利率指數、房地產開髮投資和商品房銷售額4箇指標變化情況的分析錶明,單一的、缺乏配套政策支持的利率政策對房價無法完全實現預期調控目標,要使其在房價調控中髮揮應有作用,應該保持利率調控作用機製暢通,併使利率政策與其他貨幣政策、財政政策、土地政策等政策互相配閤。
종실증적각도분석화폐정책대방개적영향。선택6개리솔지표건립리솔지표체계,이용주성분분석법계산리솔지수。건립리솔지수여방옥소수개격지수적A lmon체후모형,모형적의합우도위66%,설명리솔가이해석방개파동적66%。모형표명리솔여방개부상관,병차리솔대방개적영향존재8개체후기。대1998년1계도지2009년4계도방옥소수개격지수、리솔지수、방지산개발투자화상품방소수액4개지표변화정황적분석표명,단일적、결핍배투정책지지적리솔정책대방개무법완전실현예기조공목표,요사기재방개조공중발휘응유작용,응해보지리솔조공작용궤제창통,병사리솔정책여기타화폐정책、재정정책、토지정책등정책호상배합。
Monetary policy can have important effect on the real estate market.In an empirical view,this paper establishes an interest-rate index system that is comprised of six interest-rate single indexes.The principal-component analysis approach is used to analyze the interest-rate index system and a composite interest-rate index is obtained.It is known that both the composite interest-rate and the housing-sale-price index are smooth and there is a long-steady relation in this period.Both of the two index data are from 1998 to 2010.As a result,an Almon model could be established to study the effect of the interest-rate policy on the housing price.The empirical study indicates that,on the one hand,the Almon model＇s R2 is 66%,which means that the interest-rate could explain about 66% of the housing price＇s fluctuation;on the other hand,there is a negative correlation relation between the composite interest-rate and the housing-sale-price index and the effect that the interest-rate on the housing price is lagged in 8 quarters.In order to analyze the result,this paper evaluates the housing-sale-price index,the composite interest-rate index,the real-estate investment and the commercial-house sale,from 1998 to 2010.It is found that the interest-rate policy couldn＇t regulate the housing price completely as is expected without the support of other policies.Thus,the government should make the interest-rate＇s effectual mechanism be fluent and use other policies such as financial policy,land policy and so on to co-operate with the interest-rate policy.
