CAJ | 학술논문

在婚姻挤压背景下，男性拥有较多的社会网络资源是否意味着他们有更多结识异性和获得应急性经济支持的机会，从而增加了其初婚的概率？利用2008年西安交通大学人口与发展研究所在安徽x县调查的数据，从社会网络角度出发，采用事件史分析方法分析影响18～50岁农村男性初婚风险水平的因素。分析结果表明，当前农村男性的初婚年龄主要集中在22～27岁之间，27岁以上仍未结婚的男性，其成婚的概率急剧下降，成为婚姻市场的弱势群体；男性自身的特征和资源拥有状况，包括婚前社会网络、个人经济和非经济特征、家庭和社区因素，往往决定着个人的初婚风险水平，一般来说，男性自身特征和资源拥有状况越差，结婚的可能性越小。
재혼인제압배경하，남성옹유교다적사회망락자원시부의미착타문유경다결식이성화획득응급성경제지지적궤회，종이증가료기초혼적개솔？이용2008년서안교통대학인구여발전연구소재안휘x현조사적수거，종사회망락각도출발，채용사건사분석방법분석영향18～50세농촌남성초혼풍험수평적인소。분석결과표명，당전농촌남성적초혼년령주요집중재22～27세지간，27세이상잉미결혼적남성，기성혼적개솔급극하강，성위혼인시장적약세군체；남성자신적특정화자원옹유상황，포괄혼전사회망락、개인경제화비경제특정、가정화사구인소，왕왕결정착개인적초혼풍험수평，일반래설，남성자신특정화자원옹유상황월차，결혼적가능성월소。
In the context of male surplus in the marriage market, if a man possesses more social network resources before marriage, does it mean an increase in his opportunities to get to know women and to receive loan support, thereby increasing his chance of making his first marriage？ We use survey data from X County of Anhui Province to explore the determinants of first marriage risk for 18 - to - 50 - year - old rural males in terms of social network. The results show that ： Age at first marriage for men in rural areas is concentrated in the interval between 22 and 27 years old. Unmarried men aged 28 and older, called ＂bare branches＂ , have become a vulnerable group in the marriage market because their probability of getting married declines sharply. A man＇s personal characteristics and possession of resources, including his pre -marital social network, economic and non -economic characteristics, family and community factors, are likely to affect the risk that he marries; in general, the chance that those men with poorer characteristics and resources enter a first marriage is much less than others. We offer policy suggestions to raise people＇s concern about the marriage and living conditions of old unmarried men in rural areas and improving their well - being.