CAJ | 학술논문

利用1994—2008年安徽省R＆D经费投入与GDP总量的数据,运用ADL模型并结合滞后效应的概念,对安徽省R＆D经费投入与经济增长的关系进行了实证研究,以AIC信息准则、SC信息准则作为选择最优滞后阶数的判断标准,对R＆D经费投入及经济增长两个变量的滞后期进行估计并测算。结果表明：安徽省R＆D经费投入对经济增长的贡献是显著的,但R＆D投入分配结构不合理,基础研究投入最少,而其对经济增长的边际贡献却最大,实验发展投入最多,而其对经济增长的边际贡献却最小,从而导致R＆D投入分配效率低下,长期甚至可能无效率。
이용1994—2008년안휘성R＆D경비투입여GDP총량적수거,운용ADL모형병결합체후효응적개념,대안휘성R＆D경비투입여경제증장적관계진행료실증연구,이AIC신식준칙、SC신식준칙작위선택최우체후계수적판단표준,대R＆D경비투입급경제증장량개변량적체후기진행고계병측산。결과표명：안휘성R＆D경비투입대경제증장적공헌시현저적,단R＆D투입분배결구불합리,기출연구투입최소,이기대경제증장적변제공헌각최대,실험발전투입최다,이기대경제증장적변제공헌각최소,종이도치R＆D투입분배효솔저하,장기심지가능무효솔。
Using the annual data about R＆D input and GDP in Anhui from 1991 to 2008, this paper empirically studies the relationship between R＆D input and economic growth in Anhui by the autoregressive distributed lag model and the concept of lagging effect. And taking AIC and SC information criterion as the judgment standard to select the optimal lag order number, it estimates and calculates the lagged-time of variables of R＆D input and economic growth. The result shows that R＆D input has significant impacts on economic growth in Anhui,but the internal distri- bution of it is unreasonable. Concretely speaking, functional research input is minimum,but its marginal contribution to economic growth is maximum, and experiment and development research input is maximum, hut its marginal contribution to economic growth is minimum, which results in the low distribution efficiency of R＆D input and even the inefficiency in the long term.