CAJ | 학술논문

文章通过聚类分析将35个大中城市按2000—2009年住宅价格分为四组，结合面板单位根、协整和格兰杰因果检验对住宅价格和居民收入的均衡关系进行了分析，并运用FMOLS模型探讨了住房支付能力稳定性问题。分析表明：35个大中城市的住宅价格和居民收入之间存在长期均衡关系，但支付能力稳定性比较弱；住宅价格和居民收入互为因果关系；住房支付能力稳定性弱不是普遍现象，仅存在于高房价城市；除收入外，城市的食品消费、医疗、教育和交通通信等软硬件设施也是影响住宅价格的重要因素。
문장통과취류분석장35개대중성시안2000—2009년주택개격분위사조，결합면판단위근、협정화격란걸인과검험대주택개격화거민수입적균형관계진행료분석，병운용FMOLS모형탐토료주방지부능력은정성문제。분석표명：35개대중성시적주택개격화거민수입지간존재장기균형관계，단지부능력은정성비교약；주택개격화거민수입호위인과관계；주방지부능력은정성약불시보편현상，부존재우고방개성시；제수입외，성시적식품소비、의료、교육화교통통신등연경건설시야시영향주택개격적중요인소。
This paper divides 35 large-and-medium-sized cities from 2000 to 2009 into four groups with regard to house prices by cluster analysis. Then it analyzes the equilibrium relationship Between house prices and household income by panel unit root, panel co-integration, and panel Granger causality test, and discusses the stability of housing affordability by FMOLS model. The results are shown as follows, firstly, generally speaking, there was a long-term equilibrium relationship Between house prices and household income in the 35 large-and-medium-sized cities, but the stability of housing affordability is very weak; secondly, there exists Bilateral causality between house prices and household income＇ thirdly, the problem of the weak stability of housing affordability is not common, which only exists in the cities with higher house prices; fourthly, besides income, hardware and software facilities in cities such as food consumption, health care, education, transport and communications are also important reasons for the fluctuations of house prices.