经济问题
經濟問題
경제문제
On Economic Problems
2011年
3期
8~10
,共null页
货币中性 理性预期学派 凯恩期主义 ARIMA模型
貨幣中性 理性預期學派 凱恩期主義 ARIMA模型
화폐중성 이성예기학파 개은기주의 ARIMA모형
monetary neutrality; rational expectations school; Keynesianism; ARIMA model
利用中国1994年以来的经济数据,通过建立ARIMA模型和二阶段OLS模型对理性预期学派货币中性理论进行了检验。实证结果显示,短期内中国预期的货币供给冲击与非预期的货币供给冲击对产出都有显著影响,且非预期的货币供给冲击对产出影响更明显;但从长期看,预期货币与非预期货币对产出的正负效应相互抵消,中国货币政策表现为长期渐近中性。
利用中國1994年以來的經濟數據,通過建立ARIMA模型和二階段OLS模型對理性預期學派貨幣中性理論進行瞭檢驗。實證結果顯示,短期內中國預期的貨幣供給遲擊與非預期的貨幣供給遲擊對產齣都有顯著影響,且非預期的貨幣供給遲擊對產齣影響更明顯;但從長期看,預期貨幣與非預期貨幣對產齣的正負效應相互牴消,中國貨幣政策錶現為長期漸近中性。
이용중국1994년이래적경제수거,통과건립ARIMA모형화이계단OLS모형대이성예기학파화폐중성이론진행료검험。실증결과현시,단기내중국예기적화폐공급충격여비예기적화폐공급충격대산출도유현저영향,차비예기적화폐공급충격대산출영향경명현;단종장기간,예기화폐여비예기화폐대산출적정부효응상호저소,중국화폐정책표현위장기점근중성。
ARIMA model and two-stage OLS method are employed to test impact of expected money supply and non-expected money supply on GDP from 1994 in China.The empirical results show both expected money aggregate and unexpected money aggregate have significant effects on output in the short run and non-expected money aggregate have more significant impact on output.In the long run,the positive and negative effects of expected monetary and non-expected money on output are offset.Monetary policy in China shows neutral in the long-term.
