经济问题
經濟問題
경제문제
On Economic Problems
2011年
3期
108~112
,共null页
现金流指标 财务预警 因子分析 多元判别分析
現金流指標 財務預警 因子分析 多元判彆分析
현금류지표 재무예경 인자분석 다원판별분석
cash flow indicators; financial prediction; factor analysis; MDA
以我国制造业上市公司2001～2008年被ST的41家公司和与ST公司在资产规模和行业相匹配的41家非ST公司为研究对象,在引入传统财务预警指标设计的基础上,构建了基于现金流的危机预警指标体系。实证研究表明：现金流指标体系比传统财务指标体系有更高的预测精度和更低的错判率;混合两种指标处理后,预测精度比传统财务指标高,但低于现金流指标,错判率和现金流指标大致相同。构建的现金流指标体系有能力单独进行财务危机预警。
以我國製造業上市公司2001～2008年被ST的41傢公司和與ST公司在資產規模和行業相匹配的41傢非ST公司為研究對象,在引入傳統財務預警指標設計的基礎上,構建瞭基于現金流的危機預警指標體繫。實證研究錶明：現金流指標體繫比傳統財務指標體繫有更高的預測精度和更低的錯判率;混閤兩種指標處理後,預測精度比傳統財務指標高,但低于現金流指標,錯判率和現金流指標大緻相同。構建的現金流指標體繫有能力單獨進行財務危機預警。
이아국제조업상시공사2001～2008년피ST적41가공사화여ST공사재자산규모화행업상필배적41가비ST공사위연구대상,재인입전통재무예경지표설계적기출상,구건료기우현금류적위궤예경지표체계。실증연구표명：현금류지표체계비전통재무지표체계유경고적예측정도화경저적착판솔;혼합량충지표처리후,예측정도비전통재무지표고,단저우현금류지표,착판솔화현금류지표대치상동。구건적현금류지표체계유능력단독진행재무위궤예경。
In this paper,we take 41 ST companies in manufacturing industry from 2001 to 2008 and 41 non-ST companies which match the size and industry with ST companies as research object.On the basis of the traditional financial early warning indicators,we design a financial distress prediction index system based on cash flow.Empirical studies have shown that cash flow indicators system has higher prediction accuracy and lower rate of miscarriage of justice than the traditional financial indicators system;The prediction accuracy of the mixed indicators system is higher than the traditional indicators system but lower than the cash flow indicators system,its misjudged rate is roughly the same as the cash flow indicators system.Therefore,we construct the index system of cash flow have the ability to predict the financial crisis separately.
