CAJ | 학술논문

本文使用研究经济周期的指标和方法，对保险周期的基本特征及其与经济周期的关系进行了系统的比较研究。结果表明，中国保险业在1980-2008年间经历了频率相对较低、幅度相对较大的扩张型周期性波动；新兴市场国家和工业化国家保险周期的特征及影响因素存在显著差异，前者波动幅度较大，主要受经济周期的影响，后者则主要取决于微观市场环境的变化。
본문사용연구경제주기적지표화방법，대보험주기적기본특정급기여경제주기적관계진행료계통적비교연구。결과표명，중국보험업재1980-2008년간경력료빈솔상대교저、폭도상대교대적확장형주기성파동；신흥시장국가화공업화국가보험주기적특정급영향인소존재현저차이，전자파동폭도교대，주요수경제주기적영향，후자칙주요취결우미관시장배경적변화。
By using the basic methods and indicators of measuring business cycle, we conduct a comparative study about the characteristics of the insurance cycle and its relationship with the business cycle. Our study contributes several important findings. On the one hand, China＇s insurance industry, as a typical case of emerging markets, experiences comparatively lower frequency, greater volatility and asymmetrical （deepness of peaks） cyclical fluctuation during the period of 1980-2008. On the other hand, distinct difference exists between emerging markets and industrialized countries either in characteristics or determinants of the insurance cycle. Specifically, the former has substantially great volatility and is mainly determined by the business cycle, while the later results from micro- market environment.