CAJ | 학술논문

已有的对人口红利影响经济增长的实证研究未将结构和制度的重大变革纳入模型，这与东亚及我国经济增长的现实不符。本文通过在模型中纳入结构转变和制度变迁变量，用1978～2008年的数据进行误差修正分析，计算出在结构转变和制度变迁的背景下，我国人口红利及各要素对经济增长的影响。结果发现，固定资产投资对我国经济增长的影响程度最大，其次是技术进步，第三是制度变迁，结构变化的影响也很显著。人口红利的影响也较显著，但是其对经济增长解释力度较小。因此随着人口红利的逐渐消失，未来的经济增长更需要依靠投资、技术进步、结构变迁和制度变革。
이유적대인구홍리영향경제증장적실증연구미장결구화제도적중대변혁납입모형，저여동아급아국경제증장적현실불부。본문통과재모형중납입결구전변화제도변천변량，용1978～2008년적수거진행오차수정분석，계산출재결구전변화제도변천적배경하，아국인구홍리급각요소대경제증장적영향。결과발현，고정자산투자대아국경제증장적영향정도최대，기차시기술진보，제삼시제도변천，결구변화적영향야흔현저。인구홍리적영향야교현저，단시기대경제증장해석력도교소。인차수착인구홍리적축점소실，미래적경제증장경수요의고투자、기술진보、결구변천화제도변혁。
The major structural and institutional changes have not been accounted for in the existing empirical studies of impact of demographic dividend on economic growth in China. This paper examines the impacts of demographic dividend on economic growth by using Error Correction Model and time series data from 1978 to 2.008. The model incorporates variables representing structural change and institutional transition. Results show that fixed asset investment has the greatest influence on Chinas economic growth, followed by technological progress, institutional transition, and structural change. The impact of the demographic dividend is significant, but it has fewer shares to explain economic growth. Thus, in the future, with gradual disappearance of the demographic dividend, China needs to rely more on investment growth, technological progress, structural change and institutional transition.