亚太经济
亞太經濟
아태경제
Asia-Pacific Economic Review
2011年
2期
141~146
,共null页
两岸经贸关系 实证分析 互补效应
兩岸經貿關繫 實證分析 互補效應
량안경무관계 실증분석 호보효응
Cross-Strait Economic and Trade Relations; Empirical Analysis; Complementary Effect
尽管从贸易理论,上来说学者们对投资和贸易之间存在着互补关系还是替代关系存在着争论,但是实证分析发现,1991-2009年间,台湾对大陆的直接投资带动了贸易的增长,存在着互补效应。而且格兰杰因果检验表明,台湾自大陆进口与向大陆出口之间存在双向格兰杰因果关系。
儘管從貿易理論,上來說學者們對投資和貿易之間存在著互補關繫還是替代關繫存在著爭論,但是實證分析髮現,1991-2009年間,檯灣對大陸的直接投資帶動瞭貿易的增長,存在著互補效應。而且格蘭傑因果檢驗錶明,檯灣自大陸進口與嚮大陸齣口之間存在雙嚮格蘭傑因果關繫。
진관종무역이론,상래설학자문대투자화무역지간존재착호보관계환시체대관계존재착쟁론,단시실증분석발현,1991-2009년간,태만대대륙적직접투자대동료무역적증장,존재착호보효응。이차격란걸인과검험표명,태만자대륙진구여향대륙출구지간존재쌍향격란걸인과관계。
Although the argument exists among scholars concerning the complementary relation or replace relation between investment and trade,our empirical analysis find out that there is a complementary effect from Taiwan＇s direct investment to the mainland of China which bring the trade growth during 1991-2009.Also,Granger causality tests verify that there is a reciprocal Granger causality relation between Taiwan＇s imports and exports to the mainland of China.
