CAJ | 학술논문

网络传播技术手段裂变式发展,互联网正在形成舆论的＂自由市场＂,因此,对重大突发公共事件网络舆情扩散规律进行识别和引导的重要性日益突现。基于复杂系统网络信息传播与扩散的＂六度分隔＂假说、小世界网络和无尺度网络等社会网络理论,分析了重大突发公共危机网络舆情信息扩散演化过程,建立了基于主体（Agent）的网络舆情扩散监测模型以及网络舆情扩散规律分析模型。仿真结果得出的网络舆情扩散规律符合实际情况。该研究对于化解社会矛盾、有效解决公共危机以及构建和谐社会等具有重要的学术价值和深远的社会意义。
망락전파기술수단렬변식발전,호련망정재형성여론적＂자유시장＂,인차,대중대돌발공공사건망락여정확산규률진행식별화인도적중요성일익돌현。기우복잡계통망락신식전파여확산적＂륙도분격＂가설、소세계망락화무척도망락등사회망락이론,분석료중대돌발공공위궤망락여정신식확산연화과정,건립료기우주체（Agent）적망락여정확산감측모형이급망락여정확산규률분석모형。방진결과득출적망락여정확산규률부합실제정황。해연구대우화해사회모순、유효해결공공위궤이급구건화해사회등구유중요적학술개치화심원적사회의의。
Network communication technology develops in the form of fission,the Internet forms＂free market＂ of public opinion.Therefore,to identify the diffusion law of network public opinion and guide has the growing importance.Based on＂Six Degrees of Separation＂ hypothesis,small-world network and scale-free networks,the thesis analyzes information diffusion evolution process of network public opinion for unexpected major public crisis,and also constructs an Agent-based network monitoring model for diffusion process of public opinion and its corresponding diffusion-law analyzing model.The simulation results are consistent with the actual situation.It is significant to resolve social contradictions,to solve a public crisis,and to build a harmonious society.