CAJ | 학술논문

次贷危机的爆发引起了学术界对房地产风险及预警系统的关注.首先对传统的房地产市场预警方法进行了回顾和分析,然后从系统科学的观点出发通过对商品住宅市场各影响因素的分析构建了北京市商品住宅的系统动力学模型.通过实证仿真研究验证了模型的有效性并利用该模型对不同假设情景下北京市2010年商品住宅市场的主要指标进行了综合模拟预测,为房地产市场综合模拟预警体系提供了一个系统预测方法.
차대위궤적폭발인기료학술계대방지산풍험급예경계통적관주.수선대전통적방지산시장예경방법진행료회고화분석,연후종계통과학적관점출발통과대상품주택시장각영향인소적분석구건료북경시상품주택적계통동역학모형.통과실증방진연구험증료모형적유효성병이용해모형대불동가설정경하북경시2010년상품주택시장적주요지표진행료종합모의예측,위방지산시장종합모의예경체계제공료일개계통예측방법.
The outbreak of the subprime crisis caused the academic concern of risk and early warning systems on real estate market.In this paper,based on system thinking,we set up a systematic dynamics model of the commercial housing market of Beijing after the analysis of the factors effecting commercial housing market.Then,we prove the validity of the model by comparing the result of simulation and the historical data of Beijing commercial housing market.Finally,we obtain the value of several early warning indicators under different assumptions of Beijing commercial housing market in 2010 and provide a systematic early warning method.