CAJ | 학술논문

高质量的制度是贸易促进型的，而制度变迁对贸易的影响却是不确定的。即使是正向制度的变迁，在短期内也可能会因为制度的不稳定性而产生阻碍对外贸易发展的转型成本。文章利用1995～2009年105个国家的样本平均每5年期的面板数据，从法律制度、微观经济制度和宏观经济制度三个维度来综合考察制度质量和制度稳定性对一国对外贸易的影响，结果表明：一国的制度质量越高、稳定性越强，其对外贸易增长就越快。制度质量对国际贸易促进作用的发挥，需要制度的稳定性作保障，制度质量和制度稳定性在促进对外贸易的发展方面具有协同作用。
고질량적제도시무역촉진형적，이제도변천대무역적영향각시불학정적。즉사시정향제도적변천，재단기내야가능회인위제도적불은정성이산생조애대외무역발전적전형성본。문장이용1995～2009년105개국가적양본평균매5년기적면판수거，종법률제도、미관경제제도화굉관경제제도삼개유도래종합고찰제도질량화제도은정성대일국대외무역적영향，결과표명：일국적제도질량월고、은정성월강，기대외무역증장취월쾌。제도질량대국제무역촉진작용적발휘，수요제도적은정성작보장，제도질량화제도은정성재촉진대외무역적발전방면구유협동작용。
High quality institution promotes the growth of trade while the impact of institutional change on trade is uncertain. Even if institution changes in a positive direction, it may also imply transitional costs in the short run due to its instability. Using the panel data of 105-country samples covering 1995 - 2009, this paper analyzes the influence of institutional quality and institutional stability on foreign trade from the three dimensions of legal, nficroeconomic and macroeconomic institutions. The empirical result indicates that： the higher institutional quality of a country is and the stronger institutional stability of the country is, the faster foreign trade of the country grows; the role that institutional quality plays in the growth of international trade needs support from institutional stability; institutional quality and institutional stability have synergistic effects on promoting the development of foreign trade.