CAJ | 학술논문

本文研究经济周期、信贷风险、信贷配给、股市表现和企业家信心对公司融资选择的影响，发现宏观经济上行时，公司的融资偏好为“股权-债务”，而宏观经济衰退时，公司的融资偏好则调整为“债务-股权”；信贷配给增加后，股权融资的概率上升；银行不良贷款不影响公司融资选择；企业家对经济前景越有信心，债务融资的可能性就越大。研究结果表明，我国上市公司不存在单一的股权融资偏好，而且公司融资决策基本符合最优融资顺序理论。
본문연구경제주기、신대풍험、신대배급、고시표현화기업가신심대공사융자선택적영향，발현굉관경제상행시，공사적융자편호위“고권-채무”，이굉관경제쇠퇴시，공사적융자편호칙조정위“채무-고권”；신대배급증가후，고권융자적개솔상승；은행불량대관불영향공사융자선택；기업가대경제전경월유신심，채무융자적가능성취월대。연구결과표명，아국상시공사불존재단일적고권융자편호，이차공사융자결책기본부합최우융자순서이론。
This paper analyzes whether and to what extent business cycle, credit risk, credit quota, stock market performance and entrepreneurial confidence affect corporate financing choices. It is found that corporate financing behavior varies with business cycles. Firms prefer equity to debt when conditions improve but prefer debt to equity when macroeconomic conditions deteriorate. In addition, when loan quota increases, probability of equity financing increases. However, default risks are uncorrelated with financing choices. Moreover, when entrepreneurs are more confident about the future prospects of the economy, they will choose debt over equity financing. Overall, the empirical results indicate that firms do not prefer ＂equity financing, and that financing choices are broadly consistent with the pecking order theory but are against the trade-off theory.