CAJ | 학술논문

本文根据批判现有研究在指标选择和分析方法应用上的做法的基础上,分别以融资规模、换手率和GDP实际增长率作为衡量股票市场规模、流动性和经济增长的指标,利用1992年第1季度至2010年第2季度的样本数据,通过Granger检验发现,在按照股票市场融资项目平均建设期选取的滞后阶数上,存在从股市规模到经济增长的单向Granger因果关系,也存在从经济增长到股市流动性的单向Granger因果关系。这一结果为股市发展促进经济增长的观点提供了有力的支持性证据。
본문근거비판현유연구재지표선택화분석방법응용상적주법적기출상,분별이융자규모、환수솔화GDP실제증장솔작위형량고표시장규모、류동성화경제증장적지표,이용1992년제1계도지2010년제2계도적양본수거,통과Granger검험발현,재안조고표시장융자항목평균건설기선취적체후계수상,존재종고시규모도경제증장적단향Granger인과관계,야존재종경제증장도고시류동성적단향Granger인과관계。저일결과위고시발전촉진경제증장적관점제공료유력적지지성증거。
Based on the sample from China within the period from the first quarter of 1992 to the second quarter of 2010,The paper executes a Granger causality test for the relationship between stock market development and economic growth,with funds collected and turnover rate as the indicators of the size and liquidity of stock markets,and the real growth rate of GDP as the indicator of economic growth.The paper finds that there exists a one-way Granger causality relationship from the size of stock markets to economic growth,and a one-way Granger causality relationship from economic growth to the liquidity of stock markets,which brings about some positive evidence on the assertion that stock market development helps to stimulate economic growth.