金融理论与实践
金融理論與實踐
금융이론여실천
Financial Theory and Practice
2011年
4期
9~13
,共null页
预防性储蓄强度 不确定性 相对谨慎系数
預防性儲蓄彊度 不確定性 相對謹慎繫數
예방성저축강도 불학정성 상대근신계수
Precautionary Savings Motive Strength; Uncertainty; Relative Prudence Coefficient
国内需求的萎靡不振已成当前经济学界的一个热点问题,而城镇居民储蓄的高速增长与此紧密相连,预防性储蓄强度在居民储蓄行为中起着重要作用。本文基于理性消费者最大化其一生效用的假设,推导出衡量居民预防性储蓄动机强度的新公式。随后,用30个省际地区1985-2010年的年度数据进行实证分析,结果显示,1998年前后城镇居民存在着明显的预防性储蓄强度的结构变化,这种转变对于政府决策具有重要意义。
國內需求的萎靡不振已成噹前經濟學界的一箇熱點問題,而城鎮居民儲蓄的高速增長與此緊密相連,預防性儲蓄彊度在居民儲蓄行為中起著重要作用。本文基于理性消費者最大化其一生效用的假設,推導齣衡量居民預防性儲蓄動機彊度的新公式。隨後,用30箇省際地區1985-2010年的年度數據進行實證分析,結果顯示,1998年前後城鎮居民存在著明顯的預防性儲蓄彊度的結構變化,這種轉變對于政府決策具有重要意義。
국내수구적위미불진이성당전경제학계적일개열점문제,이성진거민저축적고속증장여차긴밀상련,예방성저축강도재거민저축행위중기착중요작용。본문기우이성소비자최대화기일생효용적가설,추도출형량거민예방성저축동궤강도적신공식。수후,용30개성제지구1985-2010년적년도수거진행실증분석,결과현시,1998년전후성진거민존재착명현적예방성저축강도적결구변화,저충전변대우정부결책구유중요의의。
Chinese domestic demand is stagnant,which becomes a hot issue in the academic community,and the rapid growth of household savings is closely linked with this.Precautionary saving motive in Chinese household savings plays an important role already becoming a basic consensus.This paper,under the premise of a rational consumer to maximize his lifetime＇s utility,we re-derive the measure of strength of precautionary saving formula;by using a data set from Chinese thirty provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions,we provide an empirical analysis of urban household saving in China during 1985-2007 period of time.It finds that there exists an obvious motive for precautionary savings in Chinese urban residents and upward trend in recent years.After explaining the empirical findings,the paper suggests policies to reduce the growth rate of household saving in China.
