CAJ | 학술논문

通货膨胀预期的微观基础是一个重要的理论问题和实践问题,但至今相关的研究还非常少。本文采用中国人民银行的《居民储蓄问卷调查系统》数据库,从经济主体的经济特征和人口统计特征两方面详细研究哪些因素会显著影响居民通货膨胀预期。研究结果表明：人们对未来家庭经济状况的信心、风险厌恶程度和金融参与及熟悉度、家庭所处阶层、人们对现阶段经济运行状况的满意程度以及最近家庭所处的经济环境都是形成异质性通货膨胀预期的重要原因。研究结果对于制定更加科学的货币政策和加强通货膨胀预期管理具有重要的参考价值。
통화팽창예기적미관기출시일개중요적이론문제화실천문제,단지금상관적연구환비상소。본문채용중국인민은행적《거민저축문권조사계통》수거고,종경제주체적경제특정화인구통계특정량방면상세연구나사인소회현저영향거민통화팽창예기。연구결과표명：인문대미래가정경제상황적신심、풍험염악정도화금융삼여급숙실도、가정소처계층、인문대현계단경제운행상황적만의정도이급최근가정소처적경제배경도시형성이질성통화팽창예기적중요원인。연구결과대우제정경가과학적화폐정책화가강통화팽창예기관리구유중요적삼고개치。
The micro-foundations of inflation expectations are important theoretical and practical issues,but there are very little researches on these issues so far.This paper makes use of the Consumers Saving Survey System conducted by the People’s Bank of China to analyze what factors significantly affect inflation expectations of residents from two aspects which are economic characteristics and demographic characteristics of economic agents.The results show that confidence in the future household economic condition,the degree of risk aversion,financial participation,familiarity with financial market,and the class that household belongs to,satisfaction with the present macro economic situation,and the present economic situation of the household are all important reasons for heterogeneity of inflation expectations.The results are of important value to monetary policy making and the management of inflation expectations.