统计研究
統計研究
통계연구
Statistical Research
2011年
3期
79~85
,共null页
能源消费 经济增长 因果关系检验 面板误差修正模型 北京市
能源消費 經濟增長 因果關繫檢驗 麵闆誤差脩正模型 北京市
능원소비 경제증장 인과관계검험 면판오차수정모형 북경시
Energy Consumption; Economic Growth; Causal Test; Panel VEC Model; Beijing
本文利用面板协整理论和基于面板误差修正模型的Granger因果关系检验分析了北京市能源消费和经济增长的关系。面板协整检验表明北京市能源消费和经济增长之间存在长期协整关系,进一步基于面板误差修正模型的Granger因果关系检验表明北京市短期存在能源消费到经济增长的单向因果关系,长期能源消费和经济增长之间存在双向的因果关系。因此北京市在进行节能减排过程中,必须考虑到能源消费减少对经济增长的负作用,尽可能采取提高能源利用效率的措施,包括利用财政税收优惠政策鼓励节能技术的研发,在政府采购时要求产品在生产过程中采用节能技术,更关键也是更重要的是积极探索能源价格机制改革,通过价格手段促进企业真正具备节能意识,主动节约能源,提高利用效率。
本文利用麵闆協整理論和基于麵闆誤差脩正模型的Granger因果關繫檢驗分析瞭北京市能源消費和經濟增長的關繫。麵闆協整檢驗錶明北京市能源消費和經濟增長之間存在長期協整關繫,進一步基于麵闆誤差脩正模型的Granger因果關繫檢驗錶明北京市短期存在能源消費到經濟增長的單嚮因果關繫,長期能源消費和經濟增長之間存在雙嚮的因果關繫。因此北京市在進行節能減排過程中,必鬚攷慮到能源消費減少對經濟增長的負作用,儘可能採取提高能源利用效率的措施,包括利用財政稅收優惠政策鼓勵節能技術的研髮,在政府採購時要求產品在生產過程中採用節能技術,更關鍵也是更重要的是積極探索能源價格機製改革,通過價格手段促進企業真正具備節能意識,主動節約能源,提高利用效率。
본문이용면판협정이론화기우면판오차수정모형적Granger인과관계검험분석료북경시능원소비화경제증장적관계。면판협정검험표명북경시능원소비화경제증장지간존재장기협정관계,진일보기우면판오차수정모형적Granger인과관계검험표명북경시단기존재능원소비도경제증장적단향인과관계,장기능원소비화경제증장지간존재쌍향적인과관계。인차북경시재진행절능감배과정중,필수고필도능원소비감소대경제증장적부작용,진가능채취제고능원이용효솔적조시,포괄이용재정세수우혜정책고려절능기술적연발,재정부채구시요구산품재생산과정중채용절능기술,경관건야시경중요적시적겁탐색능원개격궤제개혁,통과개격수단촉진기업진정구비절능의식,주동절약능원,제고이용효솔。
This paper investigates the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Beijing using panel cointegration and Granger causal test with panel vector error correction（VEC） model.The panel cointegration test reveals the long equilibrium relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Beijing.The Granger causal test with panel VEC model reveals the short unidirectional causality from energy consumption to economic growth and the long bidirectional causality between energy consumption and economic growth.Thus when the＂energy saving and emission reduction＂are in work in Beijing,the negative effect on economic growth by energy reduction should be considered.More attention should be paid to how to increase the energy efficiency.The method includes encouraging the research of the energy saving technology through the favorable finance and tax policy,requiring government to purchase products with energy saving technology,and,more important,exploring the energy price mechanism reform to promote the awareness of energy saving so that companies really have the initiative to save energy and improve efficiency.
