经济理论与经济管理
經濟理論與經濟管理
경제이론여경제관리
Economic Theory and Business Management
2011年
4期
13~23
,共null页
碳排放 驱动因素 LMDI分解法
碳排放 驅動因素 LMDI分解法
탄배방 구동인소 LMDI분해법
carbon emissions; driving factors; logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition method
本文基于三大产业和居民生活部门的12种能源消费量数据,较全面地测算了1995—2008年浙江省碳排放量,建立了碳排放驱动因素分解模型,将碳排放的驱动因素分解为能源强度、结构调整、经济发展和人口规模等四大类效应,并采用对数平均权重分解法（LMDI）测算了各类效应对碳排放量的贡献值、变化趋势及相互作用机理。研究结果表明,1995—2008年,浙江省碳排放量呈现不断上升的趋势;经济发展和人口规模对碳排放的正向驱动效应远超过能源强度和结构调整产生的负向驱动效应。本文同时测算出浙江已跨越了碳排放强度的高峰阶段,但仍处于碳排放强度高峰迈向人均碳排放量高峰的阶段。为缩短不同碳排放高峰的跨越时间,降低高峰峰值,本文提出了加快低碳经济发展的相关政策建议。
本文基于三大產業和居民生活部門的12種能源消費量數據,較全麵地測算瞭1995—2008年浙江省碳排放量,建立瞭碳排放驅動因素分解模型,將碳排放的驅動因素分解為能源彊度、結構調整、經濟髮展和人口規模等四大類效應,併採用對數平均權重分解法（LMDI）測算瞭各類效應對碳排放量的貢獻值、變化趨勢及相互作用機理。研究結果錶明,1995—2008年,浙江省碳排放量呈現不斷上升的趨勢;經濟髮展和人口規模對碳排放的正嚮驅動效應遠超過能源彊度和結構調整產生的負嚮驅動效應。本文同時測算齣浙江已跨越瞭碳排放彊度的高峰階段,但仍處于碳排放彊度高峰邁嚮人均碳排放量高峰的階段。為縮短不同碳排放高峰的跨越時間,降低高峰峰值,本文提齣瞭加快低碳經濟髮展的相關政策建議。
본문기우삼대산업화거민생활부문적12충능원소비량수거,교전면지측산료1995—2008년절강성탄배방량,건립료탄배방구동인소분해모형,장탄배방적구동인소분해위능원강도、결구조정、경제발전화인구규모등사대류효응,병채용대수평균권중분해법（LMDI）측산료각류효응대탄배방량적공헌치、변화추세급상호작용궤리。연구결과표명,1995—2008년,절강성탄배방량정현불단상승적추세;경제발전화인구규모대탄배방적정향구동효응원초과능원강도화결구조정산생적부향구동효응。본문동시측산출절강이과월료탄배방강도적고봉계단,단잉처우탄배방강도고봉매향인균탄배방량고봉적계단。위축단불동탄배방고봉적과월시간,강저고봉봉치,본문제출료가쾌저탄경제발전적상관정책건의。
This paper estimated carbon emissions from 1995 to 2008 in Zhejiang province based on 12 kinds of energy consumption data in the three main industries and residents＇ sector.This paper built the decomposition model of carbon emissions＇ driving factors and decomposed the driving factors into energy intensity,structure adjustment,economic development and population size.In this paper,the logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition method was used to measure and calculate the factors＇ contributions to the growth of carbon emissions,variation tendency and interaction mechanism.The conclusions are as follows： ①The carbon emissions present a sustainable ascending trend in Zhejiang.②The positive effect of economic development and population size on carbon emissions is much larger than the negative effect of energy intensity and structure adjustment.③ The level of carbon emission in Zhejiang has stepped across the summit of the carbon emissions intensity,but still at the phase between the summits of carbon emissions intensity and per capita carbon emissions.To shorten the spanning period of the different summits of carbon emissions,to decline the peak value,this paper proposed several policy suggestions on how to accelerate carbon economic development.
