CAJ | 학술논문

欧元作为一种新兴世界货币既在全球经济中发挥日益重要的作用,也是人民币汇率形成机制中的重要权重货币,由于欧盟是中国最大的贸易伙伴,故欧元兑人民币实际汇率变动对中欧贸易平衡产生重要影响。本文采用1999—2008年间欧元兑人民币汇率数据和中国与欧元区贸易季度数据构建VAR模型,并运用单位根检验、协整检验和脉冲响应函数的分析方法对欧元汇率变动对中欧贸易相对差额的影响进行实证分析。结果表明,人民币兑欧元的贬值初期会引起中国对欧元区贸易收支的短期恶化,但经过一段时间后由于我国对欧元区出口数量增加,贸易盈余趋于稳定,中国对欧元区贸易存在汇率贬值的＂J曲线效应＂。
구원작위일충신흥세계화폐기재전구경제중발휘일익중요적작용,야시인민폐회솔형성궤제중적중요권중화폐,유우구맹시중국최대적무역화반,고구원태인민폐실제회솔변동대중구무역평형산생중요영향。본문채용1999—2008년간구원태인민폐회솔수거화중국여구원구무역계도수거구건VAR모형,병운용단위근검험、협정검험화맥충향응함수적분석방법대구원회솔변동대중구무역상대차액적영향진행실증분석。결과표명,인민폐태구원적폄치초기회인기중국대구원구무역수지적단기악화,단경과일단시간후유우아국대구원구출구수량증가,무역영여추우은정,중국대구원구무역존재회솔폄치적＂J곡선효응＂。
The euro had played an important role in the world economy as a new global currency and EU was the biggest trade partner of China,meanwhile it had been also an important weighted currency in the RMB exchange rate system,so the floating rate of euro exchange to RMB had a vital impact on the bilateral trade balance.This paper built a VAR model based on the relevant quarterly data during 1999—2008,and used the unit root test and the Johansen test to have a stationary analysis.The results showed that the devaluation of RMB could improve China＇s trade balance with Europe,but China＇s trade income with euro became worse in short time.The trade balance became stable after a long time,so the J-curve effect between China and EU had been approved.