CAJ | 학술논문

运用协整理论的方法,通过对山西1989-2008年间的煤炭产量与山西国内生产总值之间的关系进行研究,得出如下结论：山西煤炭产量与山西GDP之间存在协整关系;误差修正模型表明二者之间存在长期均衡关系,且误差修正项ECMt-1的系数表明5.15%左右的偏离均衡部分会在一年内得以调整,调整的幅度相对较小;同时,二者具有双向的格兰杰因果关系。本文根据以上结论提出了几条建议,这对经济发展的相关政策制定有一定的理论指导意义。
운용협정이론적방법,통과대산서1989-2008년간적매탄산량여산서국내생산총치지간적관계진행연구,득출여하결론：산서매탄산량여산서GDP지간존재협정관계;오차수정모형표명이자지간존재장기균형관계,차오차수정항ECMt-1적계수표명5.15%좌우적편리균형부분회재일년내득이조정,조정적폭도상대교소;동시,이자구유쌍향적격란걸인과관계。본문근거이상결론제출료궤조건의,저대경제발전적상관정책제정유일정적이론지도의의。
This paper used co-integration to study the relationship between coal production and Shanxi＇s GDP from 1989 to 2008 and drew the following conclusions： there was co-integration between Shanxi＇s coal production and Shanxi＇s GDP;error correction model indicated that long-term equilibrium relationship between the two;and the coefficients of error correction term ECMt-1 showed that about 5.15% deviation from the equilibrium part could be adjusted within a year,and the adjustment was relatively small;at the same time,they both had two-way Granger causality.Based on these conclusions this paper made several recommendations which had some theoretical significance for formulating economic development policy.