经济研究
經濟研究
경제연구
Economic Research Journal
2011年
5期
4~16
,共null页
产业结构合理化 产业结构高级化 经济增长 经济波动
產業結構閤理化 產業結構高級化 經濟增長 經濟波動
산업결구합이화 산업결구고급화 경제증장 경제파동
Rationalization of Industrial Structure; Optimization of Industrial Structure; Economic Growth; Economic Fluctuations
本文在测度产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化的基础上，构建了关于产业结构变迁与经济增长的计量经济模型，进而探讨了二者对经济波动的影响。研究结果表明：产业结构合理化和高级化进程均对经济增长的影响有明显的阶段性特征。相对而言，产业结构合理化与经济增长之间的关系具有较强的稳定性，而高级化则表现出较大的不确定性。产业结构合理化和高级化对经济波动的影响主要表现在不可预测的周期性波动方面，而它们的影响机制却截然不同。产业结构高级化是经济波动的一个重要来源，产业结构合理化则有助于抑制经济波动。总体上，现阶段我国产业结构合理化对经济发展的贡献要远远大于产业结构高级化。本文认为，政府在制定产业结构政策时，应在强调产业结构合理化的同时，积极突破制约产业结构高级化效应的限制条件，有效推进产业结构的高级化，充分发挥产业转型与升级对经济增长的持续推动作用。
本文在測度產業結構閤理化和產業結構高級化的基礎上，構建瞭關于產業結構變遷與經濟增長的計量經濟模型，進而探討瞭二者對經濟波動的影響。研究結果錶明：產業結構閤理化和高級化進程均對經濟增長的影響有明顯的階段性特徵。相對而言，產業結構閤理化與經濟增長之間的關繫具有較彊的穩定性，而高級化則錶現齣較大的不確定性。產業結構閤理化和高級化對經濟波動的影響主要錶現在不可預測的週期性波動方麵，而它們的影響機製卻截然不同。產業結構高級化是經濟波動的一箇重要來源，產業結構閤理化則有助于抑製經濟波動。總體上，現階段我國產業結構閤理化對經濟髮展的貢獻要遠遠大于產業結構高級化。本文認為，政府在製定產業結構政策時，應在彊調產業結構閤理化的同時，積極突破製約產業結構高級化效應的限製條件，有效推進產業結構的高級化，充分髮揮產業轉型與升級對經濟增長的持續推動作用。
본문재측도산업결구합이화화산업결구고급화적기출상，구건료관우산업결구변천여경제증장적계량경제모형，진이탐토료이자대경제파동적영향。연구결과표명：산업결구합이화화고급화진정균대경제증장적영향유명현적계단성특정。상대이언，산업결구합이화여경제증장지간적관계구유교강적은정성，이고급화칙표현출교대적불학정성。산업결구합이화화고급화대경제파동적영향주요표현재불가예측적주기성파동방면，이타문적영향궤제각절연불동。산업결구고급화시경제파동적일개중요래원，산업결구합이화칙유조우억제경제파동。총체상，현계단아국산업결구합이화대경제발전적공헌요원원대우산업결구고급화。본문인위，정부재제정산업결구정책시，응재강조산업결구합이화적동시，적겁돌파제약산업결구고급화효응적한제조건，유효추진산업결구적고급화，충분발휘산업전형여승급대경제증장적지속추동작용。
The adjustment of industrial structure is currently a key issue in China, however, the effects of industrial structure on economic growth is not consistent in the literatures. In this paper, we develop a new measurement of industrial structure from the rationalization and optimization of industrial structure and specify a fixed effect model to explore the relationship between industrial structure and economic growth. Futhermore,we consider the mechanism of the rationalization and optimization of industrial structure on economic fluctuations. The results showed that the rationalization of industrial structure and economic growth has a steady relationship and the optimization of industrial structure and economic growth has an uncertain relationship, but their impact mechanisms on economic growth are the same. The optimization of industrial structure is an important source of economic fluctuations, but the rationalization of industrial structure can avoid this fluctuation. Overall, the contribution of the rationalization of industrial structure to economic development is much greater than the optimization of industrial structure. In the policy making process, the government should give more consideration to the rationalization of industrial structure rather to the optimization of industrial structure.
