经济问题
經濟問題
경제문제
On Economic Problems
2011年
5期
19~22
,共null页
典型相关 经济周期 同步性
典型相關 經濟週期 同步性
전형상관 경제주기 동보성
canonical correlation; business cycle; synchronicity
以海峡西岸和台湾为例,通过对1990年以来两地区经济周期同步性的实证分析可知,当以GDP作为衡量指标时,发现两地区经济不仅在长期内存在共同趋势,而且在短期内两地区的产出也存在共同周期;当以投资、消费等经济指标作为衡量指标时,发现这两组经济指标之间高度相关,这充分说明海峡西岸与台湾经济周期的同步程度非常显著。
以海峽西岸和檯灣為例,通過對1990年以來兩地區經濟週期同步性的實證分析可知,噹以GDP作為衡量指標時,髮現兩地區經濟不僅在長期內存在共同趨勢,而且在短期內兩地區的產齣也存在共同週期;噹以投資、消費等經濟指標作為衡量指標時,髮現這兩組經濟指標之間高度相關,這充分說明海峽西岸與檯灣經濟週期的同步程度非常顯著。
이해협서안화태만위례,통과대1990년이래량지구경제주기동보성적실증분석가지,당이GDP작위형량지표시,발현량지구경제불부재장기내존재공동추세,이차재단기내량지구적산출야존재공동주기;당이투자、소비등경제지표작위형량지표시,발현저량조경제지표지간고도상관,저충분설명해협서안여태만경제주기적동보정도비상현저。
The paper studies synchronicity of business cycle from canonical correlation,taking an exmple of the West Bank of the Strait and the Taiwan.We find that there is a common trend in long term and a common cycle in short term between them with GDP as measure indicators and canonical correlation coefficient between ttheir main economic indicators with investment,consumption and so on as measure indicators by empirical research on data of the two region since 1990.The result illustrates synchronization between the West Bank of the Strait and the Taiwan is very significant.
