CAJ | 학술논문

经济发展通过影响人们的危险（易感）行为来影响艾滋病的传播。本文提出的一个简单两时期代际模型表明：随着经济发展，个人财富的增加提高人们对于未来生活的预期，这将抑制人们的危险行为；但经济发展带来的应对疾病能力的提高又会增加人们的类似行为。因此，经济发展对于艾滋病传播的最终影响具有不确定性。本文在此基础上对中国各地区的艾滋病发病率进行检验，确实发现经济发展对艾滋病传播的影响不显著，个人财富确实抑制了艾滋病的流行，但未发现公共医疗水平提高对于艾滋病传播有显著正影响。
경제발전통과영향인문적위험（역감）행위래영향애자병적전파。본문제출적일개간단량시기대제모형표명：수착경제발전，개인재부적증가제고인문대우미래생활적예기，저장억제인문적위험행위；단경제발전대래적응대질병능력적제고우회증가인문적유사행위。인차，경제발전대우애자병전파적최종영향구유불학정성。본문재차기출상대중국각지구적애자병발병솔진행검험，학실발현경제발전대애자병전파적영향불현저，개인재부학실억제료애자병적류행，단미발현공공의료수평제고대우애자병전파유현저정영향。
Economic development can potentially affect the AIDS epidemic by casting influence on individual＇ s risky （or susceptible） behavior. In this paper, we consider a simple two-period OLG model and it is shown that as the economy grows, agents tend to reduce their risky behavior since future＇ s life becomes more attractive due to the increase in their wealth; however, they may also increase their risky activities since the probability of contracting with AIDS is reduced by more advanced medical technologies. As a result, the ultimate effect of economic development on AIDS epidemic is ambiguous. We then test the model results using China＇ s provincial data of the incidence rate of AIDS. We indeed find economic development does not significantly affect the AIDS epidemic, while an increase in individual＇ s wealth reduces the incidence rate of AIDS. However, we do not find any strong evidence supporting positive effects of public health on AIDS.