CAJ | 학술논문

本研究利用全要素生产函数分解了我国30年来人口红利对经济增长的贡献率。结果表明,劳动力数量贡献占9%,劳动力质量贡献占10.4%,人口因素贡献占19.4%。当把劳动力进一步分解为人口红利和总人口增加的影响后发现,人口红利解释了劳动力增长的33.6%,即每年对经济增长的贡献约为3%。为了充分发挥人口红利,应实行提高人力资本水平和劳动参与率水平的政策。
본연구이용전요소생산함수분해료아국30년래인구홍리대경제증장적공헌솔。결과표명,노동력수량공헌점9%,노동력질량공헌점10.4%,인구인소공헌점19.4%。당파노동력진일보분해위인구홍리화총인구증가적영향후발현,인구홍리해석료노동력증장적33.6%,즉매년대경제증장적공헌약위3%。위료충분발휘인구홍리,응실행제고인력자본수평화노동삼여솔수평적정책。
This research decomposes the contribution of the demographic dividend to China＇s economic growth using total factor productivity function.The results show that the population factor contributes to 19.4% of the economic growth,in which labor quantity 9% and labor quality 10.4%.When the labor component is further decomposed into the demographic dividend and total population increase,33.6% of the labor increase is explained by the demographic dividend,that is,the demographic dividend contributes 3% annually to economic growth.We discuss the policy implications regarding improvement of human capital and labor force participation of the results.