CAJ | 학술논문

以汽车产品为例,针对失效率以时间或里程为计量单位的单位价值高、需求率低的不可修零部件,以未来销售预测为起点,依据二维保证政策的特点确定某时点处于保证时效内的汽车数量,基于产品可靠性对保证备件的需求进行预测,针对保证备件需求的特点,提出动态分段（Q,r）库存控制策略,通过案例验证了该库存策略可有效降低库存成本支出。
이기차산품위례,침대실효솔이시간혹리정위계량단위적단위개치고、수구솔저적불가수령부건,이미래소수예측위기점,의거이유보증정책적특점학정모시점처우보증시효내적기차수량,기우산품가고성대보증비건적수구진행예측,침대보증비건수구적특점,제출동태분단（Q,r）고존공제책략,통과안례험증료해고존책략가유효강저고존성본지출。
Auto manufacturers provide customers with a basic two-dimensional warranty that quantifies vehicle lifetime with two metrics： time and mileage.Under such a warranty policy,it is very important to control the spare part inventory.With sales prediction as its starting point,the number of automobiles under guarantee in some period is determined according to two-dimensional warranty policies.It is known that the failure rate of some non-repairable items is determined by age or usage.Based on this property,a model is proposed to forecast the demands of spare parts.Then,with the demands obtained,a multi-stage（Q,r） dynamic inventory control policy is presented.Case studies are given to show the effectiveness for inventory cost reduction by using the proposed method.