CAJ | 학술논문

利用1991—2008年的数据,从产业结构的视角,运用ADL模型和二元滞后回归模型的思想对我国三次产业的FDI与各产业经济增长之间的关系进行了实证研究。以AIC信息准则、SC信息准则及LR统计量作为选择最优滞后阶数的判断标准,对三次产业的FDI及产业经济增长变量的滞后期进行估计并测算。结果表明,我国三次产业的FDI与各产业经济增长之间均存在不同程度的当年需求效应和滞后年份的供给效应。最后,就提高FDI在三次产业的利用效率提出建议。
이용1991—2008년적수거,종산업결구적시각,운용ADL모형화이원체후회귀모형적사상대아국삼차산업적FDI여각산업경제증장지간적관계진행료실증연구。이AIC신식준칙、SC신식준칙급LR통계량작위선택최우체후계수적판단표준,대삼차산업적FDI급산업경제증장변량적체후기진행고계병측산。결과표명,아국삼차산업적FDI여각산업경제증장지간균존재불동정도적당년수구효응화체후년빈적공급효응。최후,취제고FDI재삼차산업적이용효솔제출건의。
Using the data from 1991-2008,this paper studies empirically the relationships between FDI invested in three industries and economic growth in three industries by using the thoughts of ADL model and binary lag model from the perspective of industrial structure.And it uses the information criterion of AIC and SC and LR statistic as the judgment standard of selecting optimal lag order number,and estimates and calculates the lagged-time about the variables of FDI invested in three industries and economic growth in three industries.The result indicates that there exist current demand effect with different degree and lagging demand effect behind in the year between FDI invested in three industries and economic growth in three industries.Finally,it proposes suggestions for improving the utilization efficiency of FDI invested in three industries.