中国人口资源与环境
中國人口資源與環境
중국인구자원여배경
China Polulation.Resources and Environment
2011年
5期
38~43
,共null页
钟太洋 黄贤金 谭梦 彭佳雯
鐘太洋 黃賢金 譚夢 彭佳雯
종태양 황현금 담몽 팽가문
土地政策效果评价 土地督察：耕地保护
土地政策效果評價 土地督察：耕地保護
토지정책효과평개 토지독찰：경지보호
assessment of land policy＇s effects; land supervision; arable land protection
为分析土地督察的耕地保护效果，论文把这目标分解为两个问题，即土地督察制度的实施是否对减少建设占用耕地面积产生了影响；如果有显著影响，效果有多大。论文收集了1999—2007年的省级面版数据。分别采用了固定效应模型、随机效应和混合OLS模型加以估计。通过相关检验。采用了固定效应模型的估计结果。在模型估计结果的基础上。对土地督察的耕地效果进行了评价。分析表明：①土地督察的确对减少建设占用耕地面积有显著影响，土地例行督察的耕地保护效果要好于土地专项督察的耕地保护效果。土地专项督察比例（每提高1％，约能减少建设占用耕地面积为261hm^2，例行督察比例每提高1％。约能减少建设占用耕地面积为929hm^2；②由于实施专项督察，2007年和2008年分别减少建设占用耕地面积32160．52hm^2和6442．90hm^2，分别占当年建设占用耕地面积的17．08％和3．36％；2008年由于实行了土地例行督察，减少建设占用耕地面积41127．79hm^2，约占当年建设占用耕地面积的21．5％；③由于实行了土地例行督察和专项督察，2007年和2008年分别减少建设占用耕地面积32160．52hm^2和47570．70hm^2，分别占当年建设占用耕地面积的17．08％和24．83％。
為分析土地督察的耕地保護效果，論文把這目標分解為兩箇問題，即土地督察製度的實施是否對減少建設佔用耕地麵積產生瞭影響；如果有顯著影響，效果有多大。論文收集瞭1999—2007年的省級麵版數據。分彆採用瞭固定效應模型、隨機效應和混閤OLS模型加以估計。通過相關檢驗。採用瞭固定效應模型的估計結果。在模型估計結果的基礎上。對土地督察的耕地效果進行瞭評價。分析錶明：①土地督察的確對減少建設佔用耕地麵積有顯著影響，土地例行督察的耕地保護效果要好于土地專項督察的耕地保護效果。土地專項督察比例（每提高1％，約能減少建設佔用耕地麵積為261hm^2，例行督察比例每提高1％。約能減少建設佔用耕地麵積為929hm^2；②由于實施專項督察，2007年和2008年分彆減少建設佔用耕地麵積32160．52hm^2和6442．90hm^2，分彆佔噹年建設佔用耕地麵積的17．08％和3．36％；2008年由于實行瞭土地例行督察，減少建設佔用耕地麵積41127．79hm^2，約佔噹年建設佔用耕地麵積的21．5％；③由于實行瞭土地例行督察和專項督察，2007年和2008年分彆減少建設佔用耕地麵積32160．52hm^2和47570．70hm^2，分彆佔噹年建設佔用耕地麵積的17．08％和24．83％。
위분석토지독찰적경지보호효과，논문파저목표분해위량개문제，즉토지독찰제도적실시시부대감소건설점용경지면적산생료영향；여과유현저영향，효과유다대。논문수집료1999—2007년적성급면판수거。분별채용료고정효응모형、수궤효응화혼합OLS모형가이고계。통과상관검험。채용료고정효응모형적고계결과。재모형고계결과적기출상。대토지독찰적경지효과진행료평개。분석표명：①토지독찰적학대감소건설점용경지면적유현저영향，토지례행독찰적경지보호효과요호우토지전항독찰적경지보호효과。토지전항독찰비례（매제고1％，약능감소건설점용경지면적위261hm^2，례행독찰비례매제고1％。약능감소건설점용경지면적위929hm^2；②유우실시전항독찰，2007년화2008년분별감소건설점용경지면적32160．52hm^2화6442．90hm^2，분별점당년건설점용경지면적적17．08％화3．36％；2008년유우실행료토지례행독찰，감소건설점용경지면적41127．79hm^2，약점당년건설점용경지면적적21．5％；③유우실행료토지례행독찰화전항독찰，2007년화2008년분별감소건설점용경지면적32160．52hm^2화47570．70hm^2，분별점당년건설점용경지면적적17．08％화24．83％。
The purpose of this study aimed to assess the effects of land supervision on the conversion of arable land to construction use. The question about this is defined whether land supervision has saved arable land from conversion to construction use, and if so, how much the effect is. The province-level panel data from 1999 to 2008 were collected, and the fixed-effects model, random-effects model and pooled OLS model were applied to estimate the equations. The test on those models suggests that the fixed-effects model is more appropriate than random-effects model and pooled OLS model. The effectiveness of land supervision on the conversion of arable land to construetionuse was evaluated based on the statistical significance of variables about land supervision and by computing the difference of arable land area converted to construetionuse land with and without land supervision in effect. The result shows that land supervision has provided a measurable degree of decreasing arable land conversion to construction use; the area of arable land conversion to construction purpose decreased about 261 ha with a 1% increment of rate of special land supervision, and the area of arable land conversion to construction purpose decreased about 929 ha with a 1% increment of rate of regular land supervision. Moreover, the loss of arable land due to construction use in 9007 and 2008 respectively decreased 32 160.52 ha and 6 442.90 ha because of special land supervision in effect, which is about 7.08% and 3.36% of actual farmland loss due to construction use in 2007 and 2008 ; the loss of arable land due to construction use in 2008 decreased 41 127.79 ha because of regular land supervision in effect, which is about 21.5% of the actual farmland loss due to construction use in 2008. The last but not the least, the loss of arable land due to construction use in 2007 and 2008 respectively decreased 32 160.52 ha and 47 570. 70 ha because of both special land supervision and regular land supervision in effect, which is about 7.08% and 24.83% of the actual farmland loss due to construction use in 2007 and 2008.
